Storm Warning 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

057 
FZAK52 PAFG 172339
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-181500-
239 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1004 MB LOW NE OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE N. A 958 MB LOW
CENTERED NW OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AT
945 MB ON FRI...THEN MOVE E AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...TO 968 MB AS
IT PASSES S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND ON SAT.

$$

PKZ200-181500-
NORTON SOUND-
239 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT EARLY FRI MORNING.
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-181500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
239 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT TURNING E...INCREASING TO 40 KT
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT...AND TO 25 KT
FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.FRI...E WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND TO 35 KT ELSEWHERE. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-181500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
239 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-181500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
239 PM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT...EXCEPT INCREASING TO 25 KT SOUTH OF CAPE
KRUSENSTERN BY NOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

DJH/RM/SDB DEC 15

846 
FZAK52 PAFG 181332
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
432 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-190030-
432 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 940 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND BY 3PM SAT AS A 962 MB LOW AND THEN MOVE INLAND AND
WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST.

$$

PKZ200-190030-
NORTON SOUND-
432 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-190030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
432 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-190030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
432 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-190030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
432 AM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

DEC 15

293 
FZAK52 PAFG 182233
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-191545-
133 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER BANKS ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SIBERIA WILL PERSIST. A 990 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR BARTER
ISLAND SAT MORNING AND MOVE TO 150 NM WEST OF BANKS ISLAND SUN
MORNING. A 943 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST TO
BE LOCATED 150 NM WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 954 MB LOW SAT
MORNING AND MOVE TO JUST EAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 970 MB LOW
SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ200-191545-
NORTON SOUND-
133 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-191545-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
133 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY
1 NM OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-191545-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
133 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-191545-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
133 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC/RM DEC 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
407 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA WITH A
TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH ANOTHER
RIDGE OVER THE BERING AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER KAMCHATKA. THIS
PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FIRST LONG WAVE MOVING OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA TODAY THEN THE SECOND LONG WAVE MERGING WITH THE
FIRST LONG WAVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THE LONG WAVE
WILL PERSIST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SAT
AND THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL FROM SUN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND THAT WILL SET OFF PERIODS OF SNOW.

ONE SHORT WAVE STRETCHING FROM WAINWRIGHT TO INUVIK WILL MOVE NE
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE ALONG 170W WILL MOVE TO POINT HOP TO BETHEL BY
3PM THU...POINT LAY TO MCGRATH BY 3AM FRI...TO BARROW TO DENALI BY
3PM FRI...AND TO DEADHORSE TO EAGLE BY 3PM SAT. EXPECT ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THIS TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FRI AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE THERE WILL BE HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS
DUE TO THE MOISTURE NOW ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -10C TO -14C TODAY THEN DROPPING
2-4C ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR FRI WHILE THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR INCREASES 2C TO 4C FRI. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES STEADY TODAY AND FALLING SLIGHTLY FRI NORTH
OF 66N...AND RISING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF 66N.

SURFACE...
A 1003 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRIFT NORTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVER NW
ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH TONIGHT. SW WINDS 25 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THIS LOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

A DEEP LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH FRI. AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND DISSIPATE ALONG AN
ANCHORAGE TO BURWASH LANDING LINE BY 3AM FRI AND THEN DISSIPATING.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE ALASKA
RANGE SE INTERIOR LATE TODAY...AND TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND SHORT WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE TONIGHT AND
FRI AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR CAUSING VERTICAL
MOTION OF THE MOISTURE THAT ADVECTS IN TONIGHT.

A LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY
THROUGH TONIGHT. BY 3AM FRI EXPECT A 945 MB LOW IN THE WEST
CENTRAL BERING WITH A FRONT STRETCHING EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
BY 3PM FRI EXPECT A 953 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A
FRONT FROM ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO KING SALMON. BY 3AM SAT EXPECT A
959 MB LOW ABOUT 150 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WITH A
FRONT FROM ST MATTHEW IS TO NORTON SOUND TO MCGRATH. BY 3PM SAT
EXPECT A 967 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK IS WITH A FRONT FROM ST MATTHEW
IS TO NOME TO MCGRATH. EXPECT 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FRONT
AND LOW. ALSO EXPECT EAST WINDS 40-50KT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ZONES 213 AND 214 AS SNOW MOVES IN FRI.

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE OK ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SHOW SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH SAT. ALL MODELS ABOUT 7 MB
TOO WEAK ON DEPTH OF LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AT 06Z THU BUT MAIN
IMPACT OF THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 15