Small Craft Advisory 99, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED REASONABLY AGAINST THE 12Z
ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY EVEN IN THE SHORT
RANGE TO LESSER DEGREE ON TRACK BUT ON INTENSITY ON THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT EARLY THIS WEEK. TUESDAY MORNING OFFERS
8MB SFC DIFFERENCE AND 200NM POSITION DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS. SOLUTION SPREAD ON FEATURE POSITION AND
STRENGTH ALOFT ALSO EXHIBIT GREATER THAN EXPECTED SPREAD IN THE
NEAR AND MID TERM. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXITS BETWEEN MODEL
FAMILIES AND FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE LONG TERM.

ONGOING RAIN EVENT IN THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE CONTINUES ON TRACK
WITH REPORTS OF ONE TO ONE AND A HALF RAINFALL NOTED IN LAST 24
HOURS. SMALL STREAM FOOD ADVISORY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE IN THE
INTERIOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALL FALLING ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAIRBANKS. MID LEVEL CEILINGS
AND ISOLATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST TO WEST HAVING LITTLE
IMPACT ON VERY LOW CEILINGS AND DENSE FOG BUT INCREASING SHOWER
COVERAGE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND MONDAY HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG
SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTH SLOPE AS CHINOOK
FLOW AHEAD OF BERING STRAIT LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

FOCUS IS ON AN EARLY SEASON FALL STORM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA THAT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SURF ALONG
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORE LINES AS WELL AS PRODUCE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA.

A SLOW MOVING 994 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN BERING
SEA COMBINED WITH A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL SEA WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST
WINDS ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...THE BERING STRAIT COAST...NORTON
SOUND AND THE LOWER YK DELTA COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25
TO 35 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ST LAWRENCE AND WILL INCREASE MONDAY
NIGHT OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST...NORTON SOUND AND THE LOWER YK
DELTA COAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PILE UP WATER ALONG SOUTH AND
WEST FACING SHORE LINES BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE LOWER YK
DELTA COAST. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTON BAY AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 6 TO 8
FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED OFF SHORE...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE RUN UP
AND BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE WAVES BREAK JUST OFF
SHORE. HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED FOR TUESDAY FOR NORTON
SOUND...WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY ON MODEL TRACK AND
STRENGTH.

DEEP LATITUDE ORIGINS OF MOISTURE TRAINING INTO THE BERING SEA
LOW COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED
LOCALLY WITH FAVORABLE UP SLOPE CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO DROP
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN THE NULATO HILLS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT SMALL STREAMS TO
EXPERIENCE RAPID WATER LEVEL RISES AND FOR LARGER RIVERS TO
EXPERIENCE WATER LEVEL RISES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN ALASKA ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCH UP SURGE HEIGHT OVER EASTERN NORTON
SOUND AND IN PARTICULAR NORTON BAY NO IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. MODELS
HAVE HAD SEVERAL RUNS IN MAINTAINING MOST OF THE ENERGY IN AN
ELONGATED LOW OVER THE BERING AS COMPARED TO TRACING TWO LOWS
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND TRACKING THEM INTO THE SOUTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA. THIS SOLUTION WILL EXTEND IN TIME THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AND WOULD ALSO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE BACK SIDE OF FIRST LOW
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA AND THE
ISSUES NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD POSE TO KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE
NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A WIDE AREAS
OF THE WEST COAST WITH LOCAL TOTALS OVER 3 INCHES IN THE NULATO
HILLS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATEST CONCERN ATTM
WOULD BE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND PARTICULARLY THE KOBUK RIVER MID
WEEK ESPECIALLY IF ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN ARRIVES ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

CCC AUG 15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1224 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AKZ207>214-217-241400-
CHUKCHI SEA COAST-LOWER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEY-
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA-
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST-
EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND NULATO HILLS-
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-YUKON DELTA-
UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS-
INCLUDING...POINT HOPE...SHISHMAREF...KIVALINA...ESPENBERG...
NOATAK...KIANA...RED DOG MINE...KOTZEBUE...SELAWIK...NOORVIK...
BUCKLAND...DEERING...CANDLE...COUNCIL...HAYCOCK...
PILGRIM SPRINGS...SERPENTINE HOT SPRINGS...TAYLOR...NOME...
WHITE MOUNTAIN...GOLOVIN...UNALAKLEET...STEBBINS...ST MICHAEL...
ELIM...KOYUK...SHAKTOOLIK...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...
TELLER...WALES...DIOMEDE...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...EMMONAK...
ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...
MARSHALL...NUNAM IQUA...PITKAS POINT...AMBLER...SHUNGNAK...KOBUK
1224 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

...EARLY SEASON FALL STORM TO IMPACT WESTERN ALASKA THIS WEEK...

AN EARLY SEASON FALL STORM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SURF ALONG ALONG SOUTH AND WEST
FACING SHORE LINES AS WELL AS PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN ALASKA.

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL
PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ON ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND...THE BERING STRAIT COAST...NORTON SOUND AND THE LOWER YK
DELTA COAST BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON ON ST LAWRENCE AND WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
BERING STRAIT COAST...NORTON SOUND AND THE LOWER YK DELTA COAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PILE UP WATER ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING
SHORE LINES BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
MONDAY NIGHT IN NORTON SOUND AND ALONG THE LOWER YK DELTA COAST.
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS BY EARLY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTON BAY AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 6 TO 8
FOOT WAVES ARE EXPECTED OFF SHORE...HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE RUN UP
AND BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED AS THESE WAVES BREAK JUST OFF
SHORE.

THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER STATEMENTS.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN NOW TO SECURE OR RELOCATE ITEMS OF
VALUE NEAR THE SHORE.

IN ADDITION THE SLOW MOVING FALL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DROP HEAVY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE NULATO
HILLS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE. EXPECT SMALL STREAMS TO EXPERIENCE RAPID WATER LEVEL
RISES AND FOR LARGER RIVERS TO EXPERIENCE WATER LEVEL RISES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER
WESTERN ALASKA ON THURSDAY. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN NEAR RIVERS AND
STREAMS AS WATER LEVELS RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. PEOPLE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADDITIONAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS.

CCC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 PM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       15 WNW TANACROSS        63.45N 143.83W
08/23/2015  M1.50 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HRS.

&&

SBERG