Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
108 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH
THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WITHIN 2MB. THEY MAINTAIN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY AND ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL STICK WITH THE NAM AS THE MODEL OF CHOICE
FOR PRECIPITATION AND USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND CURRENT GRIDS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND WINDS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIE FROM COASTAL
CALIFORNIA UP THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA TO THE ALCAN BORDER
EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF ALASKA. A 506 DAM LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY WILL BE ABSORBED BY 493 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ANADYR THIS EVENING. THE MERGED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE NORTH TO THE BERING
STRAIT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAINLY IMPACTING THE WEST COAST. AS THE RIDGE
FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. AT 850 HPA...AS THE DECAYING OCCLUSION MOVES NORTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER TODAY THE WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL EVENTUALLY
BE SHUT OFF OVER THE INTERIOR AND A WEAK COOLING TREND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE TROUGH OUT WEST WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL PREVAIL WORKING INLAND TO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERIOR.

SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE CONTINUES AS
THE LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS MOVED TO BRISTOL BAY TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO NORTON SOUND BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE LOW WILL EXTEND FROM
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
LEESIDE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA THROUGH
SUNDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST
COAST AND ARCTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGE OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL PERSIST WITH
NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH. AS A WEAK FRONT DEVELOPS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR SUNDAY A BUBBLE HIGH WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND IT MOVING OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND MIDDLE YUKON RIVER
SUNDAY...THEN TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR MONDAY. CHINOOK
WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE HAVE KICKED UP A LITTLE AS THE
DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES NORTH...CHINOOK WILL COLLAPSE AS THE
FRONT GETS FURTHER NORTH THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS NOT AS STRONG AS MODELS
ADVERTISED YESTERDAY BUT STILL EXPECT THEY WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE OCCLUSION WORKING NORTH SNOW WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ARCTIC SO WILL KEEP THE ADVISORIES FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE MAJOR ISSUE. TEMPERATURES
PRETTY FLAT NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVING SUNDAY AS WINDS
DIMINISH...BUT WILL STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING SNOW TO DEAL WITH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STILL A MIXED BAG OUT
HERE...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY. STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND...THE BERING STRAIT COAST...AND NORTH OF KIVALINA.
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED A LITTLE BUT WITH THE LOW MOVING NORTH
THEY SHOULD RAMP UP AGAIN FOR THE EVENING OVER ST LAWRENCE AND THE
BERING STRAIT COAST THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. NORTH OF KIVALINA WILL BE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC AS
THE WINDS WILL STAY UP UNTIL THE LOW GETS NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA...SO THE BLIZZARD WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE MORPHED INTO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT. WITH THE TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER THE COAST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS HIGHER AND MODELS ARE
PAINTING A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AREAS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE THE NORMAL SPOTS WHICH ARE THE
NULATO HILLS AND THE UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA. 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CHINOOK FLOW SHUTS OFF THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...OTHERWISE LIGHT
WINDS PREVAIL WITH A BROAD LEESIDE TROUGH OVER THE AREA. SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER THIS
EVENING AND IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF THE TOK CUTOFF...OTHERWISE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS WEAK FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN THE EVENING OR EVEN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS FOR
MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.

COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ207.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 15