Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 AM AKDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z AND 06Z
ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS LOW BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES AND FROM
RUN TO RUN IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL AS THE MID AND LONG TERM.

LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH SHORT WAVE
ROTATING NORTH ALONG A EAGLE TO MCGRATH LINE. CLOSED OFF LOW AT
700 MB AND 850 MB NOTED OVER YUKON FLATS RESPONSIBLE FOR WETTING
RAINS FAIRBANKS AND POINT EAST. AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING IN THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH FELL OVER
FAIRBANKS EASTWARD TO DELTA JUNCTION. AMOUNTS OF HALF AND INCH TO
OVER 1 INCH FELL EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION...THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY
AND THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. RAIN WAS A WELCOME RELIEF IN AIDING
FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS AND IN WASHING OUT DENSE SMOKE FROM THE
FAIRBANKS AREA AT LAST TEMPORARILY. DENSE SMOKE ADVISORIES HOWEVER
FOR ZONES 219...220...221 AND 222 WHERE KEPT IN PLACE AS DENSE
SMOKE CONTINUES WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND WILL LIKELY DRIFT OVER
FAIRBANKS AGAIN TOMORROW NO MATTER WHAT DIRECTION THE WIND BLOWS
WITH FIRES AT EVERY DIRECTION FROM FAIRBANKS.

ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTH TO BE ALONG AN OLD CROW TO MCGRATH
LINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS AS WELL AS
NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS. LOWEST RH LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE FOUND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WEST OF COLD FOOT
AND ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES AS MIN RH
LEVELS DROP INTO THE LOW 30S AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE PASSES
GUST TO NEAR 25 MPH. RECENT SOAKING RAINS SHOULD PREVENT MIN RH
LEVELS FROM DROPPING TO RED FLAG CRITERIA.

A 997 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF WRANGLE ISLAND MOVES EAST TODAY.
WARM FRONT EXITING THE SLOPE TO THE NORTH OF BARROW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE MONDAY.

A SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR WEDNESDAY WITH GFS FORECASTING A VERY BULLISH 1 INCH
PLUS RAIN FALL EVENT FROM FAIRBANKS AND EAST INTO THE FORTY MILE
COUNTRY AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WHILE THE ECMWF
SPITS OUT AROUND ONE HALF INCH. SUSPECT THE GFS IS CONTAMINATED
WITH FEEDBACK AND PREFER THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

IN THE LONG RANGE BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE INDICATING A
BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN ALASKA BY WEEKS END AND
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RECENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA DEVELOPING BY WEEKS END. THE GFS IS AGAIN MOST BULLISH WITH
500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING NEAR RECORD LEVELS OF 589 DAM AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S CELSIUS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. EVEN THE MUCH MILDER ECMWF SOLUTION
WOULD HAMPER FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS WITH VERY DRY AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOAKING RAINS FROM FAIRBANKS AND POINT EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
TO THE NORTH WITH HEAVIEST RAINS EXPECTED ALONG THE BORDER TO THE
NORTH OF EAGLE TODAY. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY BOTH
NORTH EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND SOUTHWEST OF FAIRBANKS. EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AN EAGLE TO MCGRATH LINE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SOAKING RAINS FROM FAIRBANKS AND EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA. LOWEST RH VALUES
TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE AND ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE. EXPECT MIN RH VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN THESE
LOCATIONS. MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH IN
AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TODAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY WEEKS END AND CONTINUING INTO THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TO THE EAST OF FAIRBANKS RECEIVED
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO OVER 1 INCH IN PORTIONS OF THE 40 MILE
COUNTRY. SIGNIFICANT RISES NOTED ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS WITH
MAIN CONCERN ON THE GOOD PASTOR RIVER WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR ITS
CREST JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. EXPECT THESE RIVERS TO DROP WELL
BELOW ACTION STAGE TODAY. MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON
INBOUND SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FORTY MILE COUNTRY AS WELL AS
THE CHENA...GOOD PASTOR AND SALCHA BASINS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

CCC JUN 15