Small Craft Advisory 41, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 AM AKDT MON JUN 15 2015

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
VERY STRONG 587 DM 500 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL
REGRESS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TUE THEN MOVE BACK OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 560 DM OVER NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MEANS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AND THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
ARCTIC WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE TIME AS WELL.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO BARROW TO
THE BERING STRAIT BY 4PM MON...TO BARTER ISLAND TO TANANA BY 4AM
TUE...AND TO INUVIK TO BIG DELTA BY 4PM TUE...AND TO NORTHWAY EAST
BY 4PM WED. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE TROUGH TUE AND
WED AS IT MOVES OVER THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR OF THE SE INTERIOR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE RISE 2C OVER INTERIOR TODAY COMPARED TO
SUN...WHILE IN NW ALASKA THEY DROP 6-8C COMPARED TO SUN. MON NIGHT
WILL SEE DRAMATIC DROP SPREAD EAST TO THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE...
WITH A 2-4C DROP OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE THIS MEANS THAT THE INTERIOR WILL BE ABOUT 5F WARMER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...WITH TUE BEING BACK INTO THE 70S. THE
WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND FROM KOTZEBUE NORTH WILL COOL
DRAMATICALLY TODAY AND THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT.

SURFACE...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE DATELINE WILL MOVE TO NUIQSUT TO GAMBELL BY
4PM MON...TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO GAMBELL BY 4AM TUE...AND THEN
THEN WEAKENING ALONG THE BROOKS RANGE TUE PM. EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT BECOMING LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN NORTH
SLOPE TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE PHASES IN WITH THE FRONT. SW
WINDS 25 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN W 20 KT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LESS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.

A THERMAL TROUGH LYING FROM EAGLE TO PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO
BARTER ISLAND TO NORTHWAY BY 4PM MON...THEN DISSIPATING MON NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH WED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH RANGE WAS BETWEEN 15-30% ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON SUN. DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND NO ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE EXPECT RH IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF THE
BROOKS RANGE. MAY SEE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. RED FLAGS FOR LOW
RH ACROSS ALL OF THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF ZONES 217 AND 218 TODAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND WED SE OF TOK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ225-AKZ226.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JUN 15