Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1230 PM AKDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL TODAY AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST BOTH THE
12Z AND 18Z ANALYSIS. THE 12Z MODELS HAVE REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN
FEATURE LOCATION AND STRENGTH ESPECIALLY THE SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY IN THE SHORT TERM BUT SPREAD
INCREASES RAPIDLY IN THE MID TERM AND REMAINS LARGE INTO THE LONG
TERM.

A 586 DAM RIDGE AT 500 HPA CONTINUES TO SIT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY AND THEN BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST TO BE
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA MONDAY AND OVER ST MATTHEW
ISLAND TUESDAY. A SHARP SHORTWAVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WITH
A SURFACE REFECTION LOW 200 NM WEST OF WRANGLE ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND
IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE NORTH SLOPE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
BARROW. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE BEAUFORT
SEA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
MONDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE BERING SEA. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TUESDAY.

DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR AND WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEK IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S COMBINED WITH RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE
20S TODAY AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MONDAY HAVE PROMPTED A
HOST OF FIRE WEATHER WATCHES FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
FOR MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RED FLAG POTENTIAL AGAIN
TUESDAY AS STRONGER WINDS AND POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENTER
INTO PLAY.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ALONG THE
NORTHWEST CAPES TONIGHT BUT WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE BERING SEA AND THE TIGHTEST
GRADIENT MOVES  NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH RUSSIAN ARCTIC. STRONG
WIND HEADLINES AND GALES OVER THE MARINE AREAS TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ZONES 220...THE EASTERN PORTION OF ZONE
221...ZONE 222...ZONE 223...ZONE 224 AND THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONE
226. MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN ZONE 219 AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR RED
FLAG POTENTIAL TUESDAY AS MIN RH VALUES WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE
20S AND WINDS WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO CRITERIA AS THE NORTH SLOPE
FRONT DIVES SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL ADD TO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-
AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

CCC JUN 15