Small Craft Advisory 211, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
403 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS AND VERIFIED
WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODELS SPREAD REMAINS REASONABLE IN
THE SHORT TERM AND MID TERM. MODEL SPREAD THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAINS LARGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL DEEPEN
AND DIVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER EASTERN ALASKA CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY. TROUGH
DEVELOPS NEGATIVE TILT WITH AXIS ALONG A ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO
KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY AND WILL PROGRESS RAPIDLY TO THE EAST OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THE RECENT STORMY PATTERN
OVER ALASKA.

ON THE SURFACE A 985 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 990 MB JUST TO THE WEST
OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATES NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
CAPITALIZES ON FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO DEEPEN TO AROUND
960 MB OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TO BE LOCATED IN BRISTOL BAY AS A 970
MB LOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE 985 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
IS CREATING MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO KEEPING WATER LEVELS
ELEVATED IN NORTON SOUND AND KOTZEBUE SOUND WHERE HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. WATER LEVELS NOW DROPPING AT RED DOG
MINE GAUGE. WATER LEVELS BOTTOMED OUT AT NEAR HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE LEVELS AND APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY RISING NOW AT NOME AND
GOLOVIN. SURGE GUIDANCE BRINGS WATER LEVELS BACK UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE MEAN LOW LOW WATER LEVELS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE
15 TO 30 MPH WILL PUSH WATER TO THE TOP OF THE BEACH IN ZONES
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NORTON SOUND.

SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN ASSOCIATION WITH 985 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL BERING SEA IS
PROGGED TO MOVE IN OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WITH ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOW EXPECTED IN ZONES 215 AND 216 ESPECIALLY IN THE NULATO HILLS
WITH ENHANCED UP SLOPE COMPONET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AS RAPIDLY DEEPENING
LOW IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL BRING A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE
NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A VERY STORMY PATTERN IN THE BERING SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO BE SOUTHERLY LIMITING FETCH OVER NORTON
SOUND..CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

CCC NOV 15