Small Craft Advisory 162, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
350 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...HIGH ENERGY PATTERN CONTINUES....STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN
AK WITH A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW
WILL DRIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN RAPIDLY WHILE A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO
THE RIDGE AND FLATTENS IT OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUN. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR SAT AND SUN IN THIS WESTERLY FLOW. THEN THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER WESTERN AK MON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTH FROM
KAMCHATKA TO THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA.

SURFACE...LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WEAKENING THIS EVENING. 974 MB
LOW 300 MILES SW OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
ANADYR AT 4AM FRI WEAKENING TO 993 MB 4PM FRI...THEN DRIFT WEST
AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT. ASSOCIATED STRONG OCCLUSION FROM
GAMBELL TO NUNIVAK ISLAND MOVING TO CAPE LISBURNE TO KOBUK TO
MCGRATH AT 4AM FRI THEN DIFFUSE FROM WAINWRIGHT TO BETTLES TO
FAIRBANKS BY 10 PM FRI. WARM FRONT OVER THE BERING SEA MOVING
NORHTEAST TO THE GULF OF ANADYR TO GAMBELL TO SAINT MARYS 10 AM
SUN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SUN NIGHT AND MON.

MODELS...AGREE GENERALLY WELL IN THE PROGRESS OF THE MAIN SYSTEMS
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH SUN. THE TRICKY ASPECT IS HOW
MUCH WARM AIR IS BROUGHT NORTH OVER WESTERN AK AND INTO THE
INTERIOR.

NORTH SLOPE...WEST WINDS DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING EARLY FRIDAY OVER WESTERN COASTAL
ZONES...THEN DIMINISHING AFTER FRI. THE OCCLUSION MOVING OVER
WESTERN AK WILL SPREAD SPOTTY PRECIP NORTH AND MAY BE MIXED WITH
OR FALL AS RAIN INTO SAT EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST.

WESTERN AK...THE OCCLUSION WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING THEN BEGIN WEAKENING. STRONG OR HIGH WINDS WILL COVER
WESTERN ALASKA COASTAL REGIONS AND OCEAN WATERS WILL RISE WITH THE
WIND DRIVEN SURGE TONIGHT AND LAST INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER INNER NORTON SOUND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THOUGH
MUCH LIGHTER BEHIND THE OCCLUSION. PRECIP NORTH OF NOME MAY TURN
TO SNOW FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FRI
AND PRECIP WILL BECOME SHOWERY. A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRI NIGHT AND SAT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF MOSTLY RAIN BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...THE OCCLUSION MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW THAT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
MOST AREAS LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER DOSE OF PRECIP WILL MOVE
THROUGH SAT WITH THE SHORT WAVE...WITH PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW IN THE LATER EVENING IF NOT BEFORE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
WARM DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE AND IF SNOW ACCUMULATES MORE AND MELTS
LESS...GIVEN SNOW COVER OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FROM THE
PREVIOUS SNOWSTORM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM KAMCHATKA MAY BRING HIGH SURF POTENTIAL TO SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ207-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

JL OCT 15