Small Craft Advisory 154, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
254 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS ABOUT 2MB TOO DEEP ON LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
ALL MODELS FAILING TO DROP SNOW LEVELS QUICK ENOUGH OVER THE
INTERIOR. RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS POOR WITH FAIR TO GOOD
CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES.

MODELS FAILED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS QUICK ENOUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR SO WINTER STORM WARNING PUSHED AHEAD BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
THIS EVENING AS RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW AROUND FAIRBANKS AROUND 6Z VS
12Z. NEARLY AN INCH NOTED IN TOWN ALREADY AND HAVE RECEIVED
REPORTS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES ALREADY IN THE SURROUNDING HILLS. HAVE
BUMPED UP STORM TOTALS BY A COUPLE INCHES WITH EARLIER START TIME
IN MIND. FAIRBANKS ON TRACK TO RECEIVE 7 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW.
DECREASING TREND NOTED ON RADAR EAST AND SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS WITH
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION BUT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.

VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALONG A PABR TO PAMC LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
COMBINED WITH A LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET AND WIDESPREAD
AND STRONG VERTICAL VELOCITIES OVER A BROAD AREA STRETCHING FROM
JUST EAST OF MCGRATH NORTHEAST TO FAIRBANKS AND FORT YUKON AND
INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. IDEAL LIFT IN FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY SNOW ALONG ABOVE MENTIONED CORRIDOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LIMITED SPREAD ON POSITION OF HEAVY
SNOW BAND BUT DO DIFFER ON TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOW AS FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

NORTH SLOPE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS IN
ALL BUT THE EASTERNMOST ZONE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
SLOPE WITH MINOR RISES NOTED ON BARROW GAUGE.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
MONITOR WESTERN NORTH SLOPE AND KOTZEBUE FOR MINOR WATER RISES AND
ONSHORE WINDS...MODERATE SURF POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

CCC SEP 15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1143 PM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     HEAVY SNOW       2 NNW FAIRBANKS         64.86N 147.68W
09/28/2015  M1.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            COLLEGE HILLS RPTD 1 INCH NEW SNOW AT 11PM.

&&

HLIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1146 PM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1121 PM     HEAVY SNOW       8 NE FAIRBANKS          64.92N 147.46W
09/28/2015  M1.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            2 MILE CHENA HOT SPRINGS RD MEASURED 1.5 INCHES JUST
            BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

HLIND