Small Craft Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS HORRIBLE THE LAST COUPLE OF
RUNS. THE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING WELL...BUT PAST 24 HOURS THEY
ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT ALL. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SO DO NOT
SEE MUCH HOPE IN THE MODELS CATCHING UP ANYTIME SOON AND
PROVIDING GOOD GUIDANCE BEYOND THE 24 HOURS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL USE A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS FOR THE SHORT
TERM...BUT MOVING INTO THE MID RANGE WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...ANOTHER DAY A DIFFERENT SOLUTION ON THE
HANDLING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS SOUTH AROUND THE
ANCHORING LOW IN THE ARCTIC. RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
CONTINUES EAST WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH THE TROUGH LYING OVER BARROW TO KOTZEBUE TO DUTCH
HARBOR THIS EVENING...AND FROM BARROW TO RUBY TO WESTERN KODIAK
ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ANCHORING LOW IN THE ARCTIC WILL
MOVE FROM 200 NM NORTH OF WRANGEL WILL MOVE EAST TO 250 NM NORTH
OF WAINWRIGHT BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN NORTHEAST TO 500 NM NORTH
OF DEADHORSE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AT 519 DAM THEN MOVE OVER
KODIAK ISLAND AT 513 DAM TUESDAY MORNING...AND OVER CORDOVA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EAST OF FAIRBANKS. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE LOW IN THE ARCTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND ROTATE AROUND THE LOW
TO EXTEND SOUTH OVER FAIRBANKS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A RIDGE
WILL PUSH 550 DAM HEIGHTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THURSDAY. AT 850 HPA...THE ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM DEMARCATION
POINT TO LIVENGOOD TO KING SALMON THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TO LIE FROM OLD CROW TO DELTA JUNCTION TO HOMER BY
TUESDAY MORNING MOVING EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE TUESDAY.

SURFACE...989 MB LOW NEAR BETTLES CONTINUES TO FILL WITH A 988 MB
THAT DEVELOPED NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND LAST NIGHT...AND A 994 MB
LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN COOK INLET. THE LOW OVER
BETTLES WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND BE ABSORBED BY THE LOW NORTH OF
BARTER ISLAND AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC. THE LOW OVER COOK
INLET WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING...THEN
INTO THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY...AND OVER DAWSON BY TUESDAY MORNING.
A 997 MB LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST
TO CORDOVA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VERY GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION
WILL SET UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. COLD AIR POURING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MOISTURE BEING
SPUN NORTH BY THE LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL BRING HEAVY
SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM ARCTIC VILLAGE TO MANLEY HOT
SPRINGS TO MCGRATH THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ARCTIC COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
RELATIVELY QUIET. SOME HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM KUPARUK
EAST AS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FLOWS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. WEAK COLD AIR WILL ENHANCE THE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC...ELSEWHERE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES. WEST OF
KUPARUK CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FLURRIES AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION 4 TO 10 INCHES
EAST OF A LINE FROM KUPARUK TO ANAKTUVUK PASS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL SEE LESS THAN 2 INCHES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA 5 TO 15 MPH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN
INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 MPH BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
ELEVATION OF SURF ON THE NORTHWEST COAST...BUT WILL NOT CREATE ANY
IMPACTS. WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR ZONE 206.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
NIKOLAI WITH 6 TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW. WITH THE COLD AIR EXPECT
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND THE
COASTAL AREAS. COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS THEN A
WARMING TREND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 20 MPH. WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA SOME ELEVATION OF WATER LEVELS IN
KOTZEBUE SOUND AS THE WATER GETS PILED UP.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SO A LOT GOING ON HERE...SNOW
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT WITH FAIRLY STRONG OVERRUNNING SETUP OVER
THE EASTERN INTERIOR. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN MOST OF
THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ISSUE WARNINGS FOR
AREAS THAT ALREADY HAVE WATCHES. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM
4 TO 20 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
BETWEEN DENALI AND THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY FLAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...THEN
FALL SLOWLY. WIND GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SOME ELEVATED SURF ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST AND KOTZEBUE SOUND WITH PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT NO EXPECTED IMPACTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

SDB SEP 15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
847 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     HEAVY SNOW       SHUNGNAK                66.88N 157.16W
09/28/2015  E6.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 6 - 8 INCHES

&&

PWEIMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
932 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 AM     HEAVY SNOW       AMBLER                  67.08N 157.92W
09/28/2015  E4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED 4 - 6 INCHES

&&

PWEIMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1016 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE MINCHUMINA         63.87N 152.41W
09/28/2015  M0.77 INCH                          AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PWEIMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1020 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 AM     HEAVY SNOW       CHANDALAR D.O.T. CAMP   68.06N 149.58W
09/28/2015  E3.0 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            ESTIMATED 3 - 4 INCHES AT ATIGUN PASS AS REPORTED BY
            PERSONNEL

&&

PWEIMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1123 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     HEAVY SNOW       47 SSW CHANDALAR D.O.T. 67.40N 150.11W
09/28/2015  M3.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            WATER CONTENT 0.30 INCHES

&&

PWEIMER