Small Craft Advisory 124, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 AM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ALASKA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ENCOMPASS NORTHERN
ALASKA BY LATE THU NIGHT. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER WILL REDEVELOP SAT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING
TO MOVE EAST.

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED NORTH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND
SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA ON THU. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME RAINFALL OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY LATE WED NIGHT WHILE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE GRADIENT ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST AND THE WEST COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY STRONG AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.. THE ARCTIC
COAST ANS WEST COAST SUCH THAT WILL BE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY.

GAP FLOW WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AT 700 MB WINDS BEGIN TO
SHUT OFF THEN AS WELL.

SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE IS VERY LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK GIVEN THE TEMPERATURES AT OF BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THE PRECIP FIELD MOVES NORTH AND WEST.
SHARP BAROCLINICITY OVER THE CENTRAL AREA OF THE INTERIOR AND
BROOKS RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217-AKZ223-AKZ226.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240.
&&

CF SEP 15