Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
203 AM AKDT TUE MAY 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST BOTH THE 00Z AND
06 Z ANALYSIS. BLOCKED PATTERN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND
EASTERN ALASKA IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTED SPREAD ON SHORTWAVE DETAILS AS
THEY MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AS SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. EXPECT
SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AS THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH.THE WAVES
WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE TANANA
VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE YUKON FLATS WED AND THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FROM AROUND 1 TO 2 ABOVE TO 6 TO
8 ABOVE BY SATURDAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S BY
LATE WEEK. AS THE VARIOUS SHORT WAVES PASS TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST...CHINOOK WINDS INCREASE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR RED
FLAG HEADLINE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POTENTIAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WED THROUGH SATURDAY IN AND NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES 225...226...227 AND PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
ZONES...221...222...223 AND ZONE 220 ALONG THE YUKON FLATS. MIN RH
VALUES WILL DROP IN THE THE 20S WHILE DAY TIME TEMPERATURES TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 70S. SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL ENHANCE A THERMAL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.
AS THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS WINDS WILL INCREASE IN AND NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR RED FLAG HEADLINE POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A TRANQUIL BREAK UP....MUSH OUT CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR. RIVER
WATCH CONTINUES OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.
&&

CCC MAY 15