Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

096 
WWAK62 PAFG 152104
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
104 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

AKZ227-160515-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150516T0600Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
104 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 227...

* AFFECTED AREA...AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.

* WIND...SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO ABOVE 30
  PERCENT LATE THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

779 
WWAK62 PAFG 160459
RFWWCZ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
859 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015


AKZ227-160600-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150516T0600Z/
UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
859 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 227...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON MAJOR FEATURES AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST 00Z ANALYSIS. BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE YUKON AND WEST COAST
OF NORTH AMERICA SHOWS NO SIGNS WEAKENING THROUGH 180 HOURS. RIDGE
AXIS...STRENGTH AND POSITION REMAINS REMARKABLY STABLE AS WELL AS
EXHIBITING HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN EXCESS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND 1000 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AROUND 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER EASTERN ALASKA.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND AND WEST COAST
ZONES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL MIX AT
TIMES WITH SNOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TODAY. A 996 MB LOW CURRENTLY
OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH
TO BE NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY WILL DIMINISH
TO SHOWERS NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHILE PERIODS OF RAIN
MOVE INTO THE LOWER YK DELTA THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SOAK THE WEST COAST
NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. NEXT LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS SUNDAY MORNING SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN NORTH
THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR SOUTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA.

NORTH SLOPE...ONGOING BLIZZARD IN ZONE 203 WILL DIMINISH LATER
THIS MORNING AS FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH. ONGOING HIGH WIND
WARNING IN ZONE 204 WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS 1032 MB
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF BANKS ISLAND. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CREATE MILD CHINOOK CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE. WARM
CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL EXASPERATE ONGOING FLOOD
ISSUES ON THE SAG RIVER AND DALTON HIGHWAY. SEE HYDRO SECTION.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...HOT DRY AND WINDY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ONGOING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR ZONES 220...221...222
223...224...225 AND 226 FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STANDS FAST AND STRONG THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND ADVISORIES ARE HOISTED FOR ZONES
223..225...226 AND 227 WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE
EXPECTED AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN WITH CHINOOK EVENT.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR ZONES 220...221...222...223...224
224...225 AND 226 FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS TODAY...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY MEET
CRITERIA IN MANY LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ZONE 227 COMES
INTO PLAY FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY AS WIND INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AND MIN RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
20S

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AND
WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL STAGES ON RIVERS DRAINING THE NORTH
SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. HIGH WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE SAGAVANIRKTOK RIVER. ACTION LEVEL STAGES WHERE REACHED
YESTERDAY AND CONTINUE TO BE IN ACTION STAGE THIS MORNING. THE
PORCUPINE RIVER CONTINUES TO RISE AT OLD CROW AND THE BORDER
GAUGE AND IS APPROACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE PORCUPINE RIVER UPSTREAM OF THE MOUTH OF THE
SHEENJEK RIVER WAS ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIVER CONTINUES TO
RISE IN RESPONSE TO HEAVY SNOW MELT AND AN ICE JAM. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR RAPID WATER LEVEL RISES UPSTREAM OF THE SHEENJEK RIVER
TODAY AND DOWN STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE SURGE MOVES DOWN
RIVER.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ220.

RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ203.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ204.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CCC MAY 15