Red Flag Warning 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

609 
WWAK63 PAFG 060421
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
821 PM AKDT WED AUG 5 2015

AKZ226-060530-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0026.000000T0000Z-150806T0800Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
821 PM AKDT WED AUG 5 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 226...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. RH VALUES BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT WILL
BE SEEN FROM THE TOK CUTOFF EAST THROUGH 8 PM BEFORE RECOVERING.

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 AM AKDT WED AUG 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUES TO BE GOOD. 00Z RUN INITIALIZED
WELL AT 06Z. BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH AS IT DIGS IN OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE TODAY AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING EAST. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT IN
THE POSITION AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE
CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY. WILL USE THE NAM AND SREF AGAIN TODAY FOR
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

ALOFT...LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO CONTINUES TO DIG IN OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
A 553 DAM LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE EAST TO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.
THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR YESTERDAY GETS SQUEEZED OUT WITH
SOME WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH BACK OVER
THE AREA WITH 561 DAM HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE
THURSDAY EVENING AS A 537 DAM LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER WRANGEL
ISLAND. THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY MORNING AT 533 DAM WITH TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW MOVES OVER BARROW AT 533 DAM WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER KOTZEBUE AND ST MATTHEW ISLAND. BY
MONDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE 400 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER AMBLER AND NUNIVAK
ISLAND.

SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WITH A 1006 MB LOW
OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH A 1029 MB CENTER
EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO A 1022 MB CENTER IN
THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE RIDGE WILL TILT MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AND THE HIGH IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE TO 100 NM
NORTHEAST OF BARROW BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1021 MB. A 1004
MB LOW IN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND
THURSDAY MORNING AT 996 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO BE 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY FRIDAY MORNING AT 1000 MB. WEAK THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. A
CONVERGENT AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE FROM DEADHORSE TO
FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA JUNCTION
THURSDAY. FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW IN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIE FROM NUIQSUT TO
AMBLER TO NOME BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FROM BARTER ISLAND TO
TANANA TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY AS THE HIGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES TO JUST
NORTHEAST OF BARROW. AS IT MOVES EAST WINDS WEST OF BARROW WILL
BECOME OFFSHORE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF BARROW AS THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE HIGH
ARCTIC. SOME CLEARING TODAY WEST OF BARROW WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW. AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES EAST RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
EAST OF BARROW WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AS
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OCCURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. WINDS 5 TO 15
MPH FOR MOST AREAS TODAY...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE THERMAL
TROUGH IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. AS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ON THE
NORTHWEST COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT IT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOTS OF STRATUS IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND KOTZEBUE
SOUNDS...AND THE BERING STRAIT. ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO EXPECT STRATUS TO BE THE MAIN ISSUE ALONG THE
COAST. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY. WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY SPREADING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE THURSDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH SURF NORTH OF KIVALINA ON THE COAST SO WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT IT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY. MOST OF
IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE CONVERGENT ZONE AND THERMAL TROUGH
ARE WHEN THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TO BE EAST OF FAIRBANKS
TODAY...BUT THE AREA COULD SET UP OVER FAIRBANKS TO BEGIN
WITH. SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF A LINE FROM COLDFOOT
TO FAIRBANKS TO LAKE MINCHUMINA TODAY...THEN SOUTHEAST OF DELTA
JUNCTION ON THURSDAY. HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE 70S TODAY...THEN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AND THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
ON FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WITH A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING. WINDS REMAINING LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW AREAS MANAGED TO GET BELOW 30 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY YESTERDAY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN
TODAY AS THE RIDGE ALOFT IS KICKED OUT OF THE INTERIOR. SOME WINDS
IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT SO NO RED FLAG ISSUES. GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING BACK
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE FIRES TO KICK BACK UP. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR NEW STARTS...MAINLY
EAST OF FAIRBANKS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS STEADY OR FALLING SLOWLY...SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY ISSUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS RGB NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT
05/0750Z CLEARLY SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE BERING AND CHUKCHI SEAS...NORTON AND
KOTZEBUE SOUNDS...AS WELL AS OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

SDB AUG 15