Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Fairbanks, AK

865 
WWAK63 PAFG 070445
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
845 PM AKDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR A
PORTION OF THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE...

.DRY CONDITIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG WINDS WEST OF THE TOK
CUTOFF. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.

AKZ226-070700-
/O.CON.PAFG.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150607T0700Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
845 PM AKDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 226...

* WIND...SOUTH GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH FROM THE TOK CUTOFF WEST.

* HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.

* TIMING...HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER AND SHOULD RISE 
  ABOVE 30 PERCENT BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 
  NEAR THE IMMEDIATE PASS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY THIS 
  EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING BY LATE EVENING.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS 
  EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR WILL
OCCUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS
FIRES. IT IS DIRECTED TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM...
TO THE PUBLIC.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

744 
WWAK63 PAFG 070633
RFWAFG

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1033 PM AKDT SAT JUN 6 2015



AKZ226-070745-
/O.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150607T0700Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
1033 PM AKDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WINDS FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 226...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 



$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
359 AM AKDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT AT 500 MB...523DM LOW POSITION OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR UP INTO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. ONE OF THE
SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVED NORTH ACROSS FAIRBANKS FRIDAY MORNING AND
MOVED TOWARDS ARCTIC VILLAGE OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
NORTH AND DISSIPATE. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION MOVED
THROUGH FAIRBANKS LATE YESTERDAY EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED BETWEEN HELMUT MOUNTAIN AND OLD CROW BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 524DM THIS WILL PUSH THE
543 DM LOW EAST OF KODIAK ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY AND
INTO CANANDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY. THE
LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT FINALLY
ROTATES BACK TO NORTHEAST UP THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST WHILE THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR EXPERIENCES RIDGING ON MONDAY. THIS
LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI COAST GETS ABSORBED INTO THE ARCTIC TROUGH
THAT WILL IMPACT INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH VARIOUS MODEL
DIFFERENCES.

AT THE SURFACE...1003MB LOW LOCATED WEST OF KIVALINA ON THE
CHUKCHI SEA COAST ALONG WITH THE 1004MB LOW LOCATED OVER ARCTIC
VILLAGE LATER THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE KIVALINA LOW WILL WEAKEN
THE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN EASTERN BROOKS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH HANGING OUT OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND EASTERN
BERING SEA. OVER THE ARCTIC...THE RIDGE WEAKEN TODAY AS A 1013 MB
HIGH BREAKS OFF AND MOVES EAST INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA AS A LOW THAT
MOVES FROM THE ARCTIC WATERS MOVES TOWARD WRANGLE ISLAND AS 990MB
BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING TO THE
WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA ON MONDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF TODAY FOR THE BEAUFORT COAST...IT WILL SHIFT
FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE COASTAL AREAS IN PARTICULAR BARROW AND
ATQASUK. HOWEVER THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FROM BARROW EAST ON THE RISE AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. STILL EXPECT
THE TYPICAL FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM NUIQSUT EAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR KIVALINA EXPECTED SOME CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST TODAY. THE LOW OVER THE
BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO SUNDAY AS IT THEN
SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND YUKON
DELTA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR EXPECTING
CLEARING WITH EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF GALENA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ALONG AN
LINE FROM TANANA TO LAKE MINCHUMINA AND MOVED EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE CIRCULATION SEEN VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED ACROSS DELTA JUNCTION...BUT THE GAP WIND FLOW WEST OF
THE TOK CUTOFF CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THUS STILL EXPECT
SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY WITH THE
MORNING PACKAGE. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE INSTABILITY SHIFTS TOWARDS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

EXTENDED...AS MENTIONED THERE ARE STILL STRONG DIFFERENCES IN
MODELS AFTER MID NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST NAEFS MODEL RUN IS
NOW INDICATING SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR ON THURSDAY WITH THE ZERO DEGREE
LINE AT 850 MB STARTING TO PUSH EVEN INTO CENTRAL INTERIOR TO BE
AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS COOLER ON THE ANOMALIES. THE COOLER
AIR EXPECTED TO STAY AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
INTERESTING THAT ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SHOWS THE COLDER AIR WITH THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SIMILARLY TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS RUN OF
THE GFS DETERMINISTIC HAD. HOWEVER...NOW THE GFS TRIES TO PLACE A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. LEANING AGAIN TOWARDS THE
WPC ENSEMBLE BLEND IN THE EXTENDED WITH COOLER AND WETTER TREND
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHWEST ALASKA...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS COOL AS
SUGGESTED FOR THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR ATTM.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL RED FLAG WARNINGS HAD BEEN CANCELLED FROM YESTERDAY EVENING
SINCE HUMIDITY VALUES WERE INCREASING AS WELL AS SOME WIND LEVELS
DIMINISHING IN ZONE 223 AND 224. HOWEVER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR WITH QUITE A FEW
STRIKES ACROSS ZONE 221..225 AND MOVING ACROSS INTO 223 AND 224
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE WINDS REMAINED ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF...OTHER AREAS
STARTED TO DIMINISH. WINDS NEAR THE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TODAY EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR
WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE CHANGE IN MINIMUM RH. THE ABSENCE OF
STRONG WINDS AND BROKEN TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL MINIMIZE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WITH DECREASED CHANCES OF ANY
PRECIPITATION OR THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. OVER
WESTERN ALASKA...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR EXPECTED TO SEE MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NO
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER PORCUPINE RIVER BASIN BUT VALUES
THUS FAR HAVE ONLY REACHED UP TO 0.3. STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SAME
AREA WITH FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTING ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF
RAIN. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK THIS ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH WATER LEVELS ON THE PORCUPINE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MAK JUN 15