High Wind Watch 7, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
231 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN ALASKA WILL
PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK. THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC AND BERING SEA WILL BECOME
HIGH AMPLITUDE NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THIS WILL CAUSE WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. COULD SEE PERIODS OF SNOW AS SHORT WAVES MAKE THEIR WAY
NORTH OVER ALASKA...THOUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR WILL BE MAINLY
DOWN SLOPE AND THUS DRY.

ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE
NORTON SOUND AND THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SAT AND TO THE BROOKS RANGE
SUNDAY. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS DOWN SLOPE CONDITIONS OVER THE
SE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA SAT NIGHT AND OVER THE INTERIOR SUN PM. EXPECT SNOW OVER
THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WITH THIS LATE SUN...AND A
STRONG DOWN SLOPE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING FROM -2C OVER THE YUKON DELTA TO -20C
OVER NE ALASKA. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR -2C TO -4 OVER THE
YUKON DELTA BUT RISING 4-6C REMAINDER OF AREA THROUGH SAT...AND
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES SUN. COULD SEE MIXED PRECIP IN ZONES 214 AND
215 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SLIVER OF WARM AIR ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT.

SURFACE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA
AND CHUKCHI SEA WILL RETREAT NE THROUGH SUN. EAST WINDS ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST OF ALASKA WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT CAUSING WIND
CHILLS TO 50 BELOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW.

A 953 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE LOW
TO SCAMMON BAY TO KING SALMON. AT 3AM SAT A 961 MB LOW IN WESTERN
BRISTOL BAY WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE LOW TO GAMBELL TO
MCGRATH. AT 3PM SAT IT WILL BE A 971 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WITH
THE FRONT FROM THE LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT TO DENALI. LIGHT
SNOW ALONG THE FRONT WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ZONES 214
AND 215 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SNOW ALONG THE FRONT
WILL DIMINISH TO A CHANCE OF SNOW TONIGHT AND JUST FLURRIES BY
SAT. EAST WINDS 30G40KT AND LOCAL GUSTS 50KT ALONG THE WEST COAST
NOW WILL DECREASE TO 20-30KT SAT. EAST WINDS 20-30KT IN CHANNELED
AREAS OF THE INTERIOR WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY SAT.

BY 3AM SUN A 1004 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND
THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE COAST SUN PM. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
SWITCH FROM EAST TO SW AND DECREASE ON SUN ON THE ARCTIC COAST.

A WEATHER FRONT FROM BRISTOL BAY SOUTH AT 3PM SUN WILL MOVE TO
NOME TO MCGRATH BY 3PM MON. THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING
RAIN IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR MON. EXPECT STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER
ALASKA RANGE SUN NIGHT AND MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL ALOFT AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH
MON. START TO SEE DIFFERENCE ON TIMING OF SHORT WAVES FROM MON PM
ONWARD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JB DEC 15