High Wind Warning 11, NWS Fairbanks, AK

799 
WWAK73 PAFG 082325
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

AKZ225-090900-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-151109T1500Z/
DENALI-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA
225 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
  AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PREVENT PROPERTY
DAMAGE.

&&

$$

AKZ226-090900-
/O.CON.PAFG.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-151109T1500Z/
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
225 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST MONDAY...

* LOCATION...NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
  AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. PROPERTY DAMAGE MAY OCCUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS HIGH WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PREVENT PROPERTY
DAMAGE.

&&

$$

AKZ223-090900-
/O.CON.PAFG.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-151109T0900Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE
225 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT
FROM DELTA JUNCTION SOUTH...

* LOCATION...DELTA JUNCTION AND SOUTH TO THE ALASKA RANGE.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST
  WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
  AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING OR
EXPECTED. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS WHICH MAY
BE BLOWN ABOUT BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

674 
WWAK73 PAFG 090835
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1135 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

AKZ225-226-090945-
/O.CAN.PAFG.HW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-151109T1500Z/
DENALI-EASTERN ALASKA RANGE-
INCLUDING...HEALY...DENALI NATIONAL PARK...CARLO CREEK...
KANTISHNA...MENTASTA LAKE...BLACK RAPIDS...DONNELLY DOME...
TRIMS CAMP...EAGLE TRAIL...MINERAL LAKE
1135 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

$$

AKZ223-090945-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-151109T0900Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE
1135 PM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
359 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE MID RANGE. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. USING A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH A STRONG LEAN ON
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE WHILE NUDGING
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES UP WITH THE SREF. WILL LEAN MORE ON
THE GFS IN THE MID RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING CONTINUITY.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR
AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA LATER THIS MORNING. RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER POINT
LAY TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO ANCHORAGE AND WILL CONTINUE EAST
TODAY TO LIE FROM OVER THE ARCTIC NEAR SHORE WATERS OVER BARTER
ISLAND TO EAGLE TO YAKUTAT BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN INTO
CANADA. A 487 DAM LOW 200 WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE
OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN OVER THE WESTERN
SEWARD PENINSULA BY MONDAY MORNING AT 489 DAM. MODELS DISAGREE
A BIT ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE LOW AFTER THAT...BUT IT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVER NORTON SOUND...THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE ARCTIC
NEARSHORE WATERS NEAR BARROW BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH ZONAL
FLOW NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. AT 850 HPA...A SHOT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY AS SHORTWAVE SHOOTS ACROSS THE STATE...THEN WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE INTO CANADA WITH THE AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE ALCAN
BORDER LATE MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE
FROM 150 NM NORTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN OVER PORT CLARENCE
ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY MID DAY MONDAY. A TROUGH THAT LIES OVER
THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS MONDAY EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
YUKON AT 981 MB AS A 983 MB LOW DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF BARROW. THE
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON WILL MERGE WITH THE LOW NEAR WAINWRIGHT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 996 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WRANGEL
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH UP TO 0.30 INCH OF PRECIPITATION FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE JUMPY WITH THE SURGE VALUES
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THEY ARE POINTING TOWARD PRETTY HIGH SURGE
VALUES SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
HIGHEST VALUES CONTINUE TO BE AROUND GOLOVIN AND IN NORTON BAY.
IT APPEARS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT GOLOVIN WILL TAKE THE BRUNT
OF THE STORM WITH AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TANK FARM IN
GOLOVIN BEING INUNDATED WITH STORM SURGE. OTHER AREAS THAT WILL
SEE SURGES OF 4 TO 8 FEET WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT EROSION ALONG THE
BEACHES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL WAVE RUN UP. WARNINGS ARE REPLACING
THE WATCHES FOR ZONES 211 212 AND 214.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
FROM BARROW EAST...BUT TO THE WEST OF BARROW WINDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES TO ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF WAINWRIGHT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHTER WINDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOW SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND
WESTERN BROOKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.
BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FROM WAINWRIGHT TO
DEADHORSE TONIGHT. A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...THEN A COOLING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BIG MESS OUT HERE TODAY. RAIN
AND SNOW...VERY WINDY...AND COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS...SEE MARINE
SECTION ABOVE AND HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAIL. LOW IS WINDING
UP PRETTY GOOD AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD ON THE
POSITIONING OF IT THROUGH TIME. BIG QUESTION WILL BE THE HOW FAR
WEST THE FETCH WILL TURN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER PORT CLARENCE THIS
EVENING. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST OF ZONE 214
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS AROUND SCAMMON BAY WILL BE VERY STRONG AND
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE A BIG MESS WITH RAIN MIXING WITH
SNOW FROM NOME SOUTH AND EVENING JUST RAIN IN THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL TURN IT ALL BACK TO SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH TO OVER 5 INCHES
IN SPOTS NORTH OF GALENA. GUSTY WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE TO NEAR
65 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
INTERIOR THIS EVENING...HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE DIRECTION OF
FLOW. WEST FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHILE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CHINOOK OUT SOME OF THAT MOISTURE. LATEST
MODELS ARE PRODUCING UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...SO WILL GO WITH THAT FOR NOW BUT NEXT MODEL RUN COULD
DRAMATICALLY CUT THAT OR INCREASE IT A BIT. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT...HOWEVER STRONG GAP FLOW WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR ALASKA RANGE
PASSES AND MODERATE TANANA VALLEY JET WILL KICK WINDS UP AROUND
DELTA JUNCTION. WILL ISSUE WARNINGS FOR THE PASSES AND ADVISORY
FOR THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ214-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB NOV 15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1106 PM AKST SAT NOV 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 PM     SNOW             2 E FAIRBANKS           64.84N 147.58W
11/07/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL OVER 2 DAYS FAIRBANKS MIDTOWN

&&

PWEIMER