High Surf Advisory 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
145 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WHEN COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS RUN THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THEY INITIALIZING WELL
AGAINST THE MAJOR FEATURE POSITIONS AND ARE ONLY 1 TO 3 MB
DIFFERENT THAN OBSERVED VALUES AT 18Z. STILL PRETTY SKEPTICAL
ABOUT THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS WE GET PAST 48 HOURS SINCE IT HAS NOT
BEEN VERY GOOD THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS WILL USE
A BLEND OF NAM AND GFS...THEN LEAN ON A CONCENSUS SOLUTION.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION THE PAST 24 HOURS
HAS BEEN HANDLED MUCH BETTER. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH. THE ANCHORING LOW IN THE ARCTIC HAS MOVED TO 250 NM NORTH
OF WAINWRIGHT AT 492 DAM AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO 500 NM NORTH
OF DEADHORSE AT 495 DAM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH IS JUST EAST OF KODIAK AND WILL MOVE OVER CORDOVA
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 520 DAM...THEN FILL RAPIDLY AND BE
ABSORBED BY THE LOW OVER THE ARCTIC AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN
YUKON TERRITORY. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE EAST OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. A RIDGE WITH 546 DAM
HEIGHTS REACHING NORTH OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL SLIDE EAST
OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING...CONTINUING ACROSS THE
STATE TO BE OVER THE YUKON BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AT 850
HPA...THE ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM OLD CROW TO DELTA JUNCTION TO
SEWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER
OVERNIGHT. WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK.

SURFACE...979 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TO 500 NM NORTH OF NUIQSUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
CONTINUE NORTH INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. A WEAK WEATHER FRONT WILL
BRUSH THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH A SECOND
MORE ACTIVE FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING ACROSS THE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
EXTENDING FROM A 984 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO A 976
MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST AS A 984 MB LOW IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MOVES TO THE
YUKON TERRITORY...THEN NORTH ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER BEFORE BEING
ABSORBED BY THE LOW OVER BANKS ISLAND. THE LOW OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST TO CORDOVA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 986 MB
THEN TO 100 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AS IT FILLS AND IS EVENTUALLY
ABSORBED BY A LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE ALCAN BORDER WITH A 1028 MB HIGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND A
1030 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

ARCTIC COAST...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC OCEAN. AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN WEAKEN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR.
A COUPLE OF HIT AND RUN WEATHER FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE FIRST ONE MAKING ITS WAY TO THE NORTHWEST COAST NOW AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST. THE SECOND
FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CARRY A LITTLE MORE PUNCH SPREADING SNOW EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC THURSDAY ENHANCING THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. NOT GOING TO GET MUCH AS FAR AS SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE ARCTIC WITH EITHER SYSTEM...BUT THERE COULD BE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE THE WARNING FOR THE ZONE 206...EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH
LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. SOME PILING OF WATER ON THE NORTHWEST COAST
AND AROUND POINT BARROW WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NORTH FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
AREA AS THE RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE COAST. ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AS THE COLD AIR MOVES
ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND BERING STRAIT. INLAND AREAS EAST OF THE
NULATO HILLS WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 20 MPH...STRONGEST AROUND KOTZEBUE SOUND. WILL CONTINUE
THE WARNING FOR THE ALASKA RANGE EAST OF NIKOLAI THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN KOTZEBUE WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
EAST OF A LINE FROM CHANDALAR LAKE TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO
NIKOLAI TONIGHT. WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOW TOTALS AS WE NEAR VALUES IN SOME AREAS THAT
WE HAD FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 20 INCHES
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE ALASKA RANGE BETWEEN DENALI AND
THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT
TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY...THEN BEGIN COOLING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH TODAY...BUT
INCREASE A BIT WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH OVER THE
HILLS AND AROUND 20 MPH IN THE VALLEYS.

&&

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-
AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

&&

SDB SEP 15

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