Gale Warning 80, NWS Fairbanks, AK

219 
FZAK51 PAFG 112219
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
219 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-121245-
219 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH 998 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW CENTER WILL WEAKEN TO 1007 MB NEAR PRUDHOE BAY ON SAT AND
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SUN. A
1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUN.

$$

PKZ225-121245-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
219 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-121245-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
219 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-121245-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
219 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-121245-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
219 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-121245-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
219 PM AKDT FRI SEP 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

EWP/DA SEP 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
303 PM AKDT THU SEP 10 2015

UPDATED HAZARDS IN AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR-TERM INCLUDED FOG...PRECIP...AND WINDS.
IN REGARD TO WINDS...WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ZONES
217...223...AND 226. FORT GREELY MESONET SITES ALONG THE
RICHARDSON HIGHWAY CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH WINDS AND GUSTS. TEXAS
CONDO MESOSITE HAS SEEN GUSTS AS HIGH AS 68 MPH THIS MORNING IN
ZONE 226. NORTH TEST TRACK MESOSITE IN ZONE 223 HAS RECORDED A
GUST TO 57 MPH. IN THE UPPER KOBUK AND NOATAK VALLEYS...GUSTS AT
THE NOATAK RAWS HAVE EXCEEDED 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING PERIODS. WIND ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM
TODAY. GUSTS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY REMAIN LARGELY BELOW 40
MPH. MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER...CONFIDENT THEY WILL STAY BELOW 50 MPH.

ELSE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT TOMORROW.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH INCREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AK.

12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AND QPF OUT TO ABOUT 48-HRS WITH DIFFERENCES
BECOMING MORE APPARENT AFTERWARDS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MAINLAND AK LIFTING NORTH THE
NEXT 48-HRS.

.ALOFT...AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
MAINLAND AK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC AND THERE IS A RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST CONUS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-HRS WITH A 525 DAM CENTER
DEVELOPING LATE TODAY ROUGHLY OVER THE KOTZEBUE SOUND.
MEANWHILE...WEAK RIDGING WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHEAST AK EARLY FRI AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST CONUS STRENGTHEN AND DRIFTS SLOWLY
EAST.

WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN PERSIST FROM THE EASTERN BERING...TO
SOUTH CENTRAL AK...TO THE GULF OF ALASKA BEGINNING FRI THROUGH
SAT. THE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AT THAT TIME WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVING TO NORTHWEST AK BY SAT.
ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND NEAR THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY
SAT. THE LOW CENTER NEAR NORTHWEST AK WILL THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
SUN AS THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVES SOUTH AND EAST TO
SOUTHWEST AK.

.SURFACE...A 981 HPA LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR KING SALMON
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT STRETCHES EAST THROUGH THE KENAI
PENINSULA INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
JUST SOUTH OF ICY CAPE. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS
ORIENTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO SOUTH OF THE YUKON
FLATS. ELSEWHERE...A 1021 HPA HIGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI
SEA AND THE WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA.

OVER A 24-HR PERIOD BY FRI MORNING...A NEW LOW CENTER WILL HAVE
DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AT 994 HPA AS THE LOW NEAR
KING SALMON DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONGER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN AT 987 HPA FRI
MORNING THAT WILL HAVE STEMMED FROM THE YUKON. MEANWHILE...THE
HIGH IN THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA/WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN BEAUFORT AND HIGH ARCTIC WITH A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE EASTERN
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN BERING SEA AND THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL HAVE MOVED
SOUTH AND A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST IN THE HIGH ARCTIC AND NORTHERN
BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH SAT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING TO 1026 HPA.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN AK AS THE LOW
OVER THE NORTHERN MACKENZIE RIVER BASIN MOVES EASTWARD. A TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM INTERIOR AK
TO NORTHWEST AK EARLY SAT.

MSLP GRADIENT MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY THE ARCTIC COAST AND WILL STAY HIGH THROUGH
SAT...THIS WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST. THE ELEVATED
WINDS WILL THEN MOVE NORTH OFF THE LAND AND BE MORE OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BEGINNING SAT. ELSEWHERE...GRADIENT REMAINS HIGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING AND WEST COAST PROMPTING STRONG
WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO START RELAXING LATE
FRI/EARLY SAT.

WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNSETTLED OVER NORTHERN AK THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROB OF PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS COULD BE
ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE KOTZEBUE
SOUND LATE TODAY AND A SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE MIDDLE YUKON
VALLEY EARLY FRI. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THIS MID-LEVEL LOW THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OF WHICH...A
DISTURABANCE ALOFT MOVING NORTHEAST BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT
FOLLOWED THEN BY ANOTHER ONE WILL PROMPT INCREASED CHANCES OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH SAT.

.COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT FRIDAY. WIND-DRIVEN
TRANSPORT OF SEAS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTH SHORE OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8
TO 12 FEET ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING TODAY BEFORE
THEY START DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ217.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ240.
&&

ET SEP 15