Gale Warning 57, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1251 PM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12 AND 18Z
ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS MINIMAL IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID
TERM AND IS REASONABLE IN THE LONG TERM.

LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ALASKA CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTH EAST AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH ALONG A FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH TO THE EAST AND NORTH TODAY. SHOWERS EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE STATE BY THIS EVENING.

STRONG RIDGE ALOFT AS WELL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTH AND EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AND DRYING. STRONG RIDGE AT 500 HPA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO NEARLY 585 DAM OVER MCGRATH BY SUNDAY. THIS IS NEARLY 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL RESULT IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE INTERIOR BEING WARM AND DRY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S OVER THE WEEKEND
FROM EAST OF GALENA...SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
20S AND UPPER TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT WITH BOTH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND SURFACE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE INTERIOR. ATTM FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE YUKON FLATS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL GENERATE GALE
FORCE WINDS THROUGH AND NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT AND IN THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT COOL AND WET WEATHER OVER THE INTERIOR THE LAST FEW DAYS
WILL DELAY THE POTENTIAL ONSET OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS PAST THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TO
UPPER 20S RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
20S AND UPPER TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 9500 FT OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED RUN OFF OF THE REMAINING
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW PACK AND WILL INCREASE RUN OFF FROM ALASKA
RANGE GLACIERS. NO HYDRO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME AS AFFECTED RIVER
BASINS ARE CURRENTLY AT VERY LOW WATER STAGES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC JUN 15