Gale Warning 56, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 AM AKDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF WITH
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
TODAY AND SHOULD EXIT THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE STATE BY SAT.

THE UPPER HIGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE WILL HAVE A CENTER
AROUND 585 DM. THIS WILL ALL BUT COMPLETELY SHUT OFF MOST
CONVECTION POTENTIAL.

A LOW CENTER IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND PUSH UP
AGAINST THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
GRADIENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND THE ARCTIC TO WARRANT
MARINES ADVISORIES AS WELL AS GALE WARNINGS TONIGHT FOR THE
NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST.

ARCTIC COAST...ALTHOUGH OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS THAN A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL TRAVERSE THE THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND MAINTAINING THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST...WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING IN STRATUS AND FOG FOR PLACES SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE YK DELTA AS WELL AS SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

INTERIOR...WARM AND DRY WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK UNDER THE RIDGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS AND MOVES TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF
NORTHERN ALASKA BY THE ENTIRE WEEKEND...EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP
RAPIDLY. WINDS MAY NOT REACH MINIMUM RED FLAG CRITERIA BECAUSE OF
BEING UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WITH LITTLE TO NO GRADIENT WIND
BUT THE RH VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
AT THIS TIME THAT THERE WILL BE ANY MECHANISM TO PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR NEARLY ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT MOST ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL PREVENT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS FROM ARISING. THE ONLY
CAVEAT IS THAT GIVEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND
THE ALASKA RANGE..RAPID SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR AND DEPENDING UPON THE
AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL THAT OCCURRED THIS MAY INITIATE A RISE IN THE
RECEIVING RIVERS...BUT WILL LIKELY NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CF JUN 15