Gale Warning 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

947 
FZAK51 PAFG 132151
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
151 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-141400-
151 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA WED NIGHT AND THU...THEN MOVE TO BANKS ISLAND
LATE FRI. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
THU.

$$

PKZ225-141400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
151 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-141400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
151 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-141400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
151 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-141400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
151 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-141400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
151 PM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

LTH/JK MAY 15

638 
FZAK51 PAFG 141155
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
355 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-150300-
355 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC WILL EXPAND SOUTHEAST OVER
THE BEAUFORT SEA TODAY...THEN MOVE TO BANKS ISLAND LATE FRI. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TODAY.

$$

PKZ225-150300-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
355 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. FOG...RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-150300-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
355 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-150300-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
355 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-150300-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
355 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-150300-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
355 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. FOG.
.FRI...E WINDS 40 KT. FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC/RM MAY 15

306 
FZAK51 PAFG 142237
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
237 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-151345-
237 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE TO EAST
OF BANKS ISLAND FRI NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT DISSIPATE OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT MOVING NORTH OVER
THE NORTH SLOPE SAT.

$$

PKZ225-151345-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
237 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-151345-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
237 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-151345-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
237 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-151345-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
237 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 5 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-151345-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
237 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 40 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

JL/RF MAY 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
244 AM AKDT WED MAY 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 00Z AND
06Z ANALYSIS. BLOCKED PATTERN WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND THE YUKON WILL MERGE WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE BERING SEA THURSDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OVER EASTERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL SPREAD
REMAINS MINIMAL IN THE NEAR AND MID TERM AND IS AT EXPECTED LEVELS
IN THE EXTENDED TERM.

WEST COAST...WESTERN INTERIOR AND  WESTERN NORTH
SLOPE...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES MOVE NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. RAIN SHOWERS MOVING NORTH INTO
THE LOWER YK DELTA ATTM WILL TRANSITION TO PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY.
RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. NEXT ROUND OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE
LOWER YK DELTA THURSDAY MORNING AS A 992 MB LOW MOVES NORTH TO
CROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN NORTH SLOPE
THROUGH FRIDAY. NEST ROUND OF RAIN PUSHES INTO THE LOWER YK DELTA
SUNDAY MORNING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WARMING AND DRYING WILL INTENSIFY
INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST
INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS
HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPPED
THROUGH SATURDAY LIMITING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS IN
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL BECOME GUSTY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 223...225 AND 226 WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONGOING RED FLAG WARNINGS ON TRACK WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY TO EXPAND IN EXTENT AS
WARM AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND AS THERMAL TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES IN THE MID TO LOWER 20S ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CAPPED AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MUSH OUT CONTINUES WITH ONLY MINOR ISSUES NOTED BY RIVER WATCH.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC MAY 15