Gale Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AKST MON JAN 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
LONG WAVE RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE WEST COAST OF CANADA NORTHWEST
ACROSS ALASKA TO THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED THEN
WEAKEN AS A LOW MOVES FROM NEAR THE POLE AND DROPS SOUTH OVER THE
WEST COAST OF ALASKA FRI AND SAT. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ARCTIC SLOPE TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...FOR THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK AND
THEN DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND FOR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

STRATUS AND PATCHY FLURRIES AND FOG UNDER THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE WILL
THIN THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AND MIX OUT THE
STRATUS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM +2C SOUTH OF MCGRATH TO -14C ALONG
THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
TUE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING SW OF DENALI TO NOME TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WED. AN ARCTIC FRONT STRETCHING FROM EAGLE TO FAIRBANKS TO
THE BERING STRAIT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH TUE PM.

A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL
MOVE BY 3AM TUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SE BERING SEA WITH THE
FRONT FROM LOW TO CAPE NEWENHAM THEN EAST LONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
BY 3PM TUE THE LOW WILL BECOME A 971 MB LOW WEST OF SAINT PAUL
ISLAND WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING TO THE YUKON DELTA TO
FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE. BY 3AM WED THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA AS A 972 MB LOW AND THEN CONTINUE MOVING WEST. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE BY 3AM WED TO NOME TO EAGLE AND OVER RUN
THE SURFACE ARCTIC FRONT. EXPECT 1-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS
FRONT EAST OF TANANA WHERE THE ARCTIC FRONT IS STRONGEST. HEAVIEST
SNOW WILL BE OVER TANANA YUKON UPLANDS EAST OF LIVENGOOD.
WEST OF TANANA JUST ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WED. WILL NEED TO WATCH ZONES
221 225 AND WEST FOR POSSIBLE FREEZING PRECIPITATION TUE AND TUE
NIGHT.

EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE BROOKS RANGE
SOUTH TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH.
WILL SEE NE GALES OVER NORTON SOUND TONIGHT AND TUE. INTERIOR
SECTIONS PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE 15G25KT TONIGHT AND TUE.
POINT LAY AREAS NOW GETTING E 30KT WITH BLOWING SNOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

A SECOND STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR
WED NIGHT AND THU BRINGING MORE EAST WINDS AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SNOW TO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 3PM TUE THEN GFS BIT FASTER
BRINGING TROUGHS NORTH OVER AK THAN NAM. PREFER THE FASTER GFS
SOLUTION. MODELS AGREE ON LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON DETAILS BY THE WEEKEND.
HPC USING CONTINUITY BASED ON ENSEMBLES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ224.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

JAN 15