Gale Warning 24, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 PM AKST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER
EASTERN ALASKA AND THE NW PACIFIC WITH A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS IS CAUSING A
SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS MUCH WARMER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE
PERIODS OF SNOW.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EAST TO
THE ALCAN BORDER BY 3AM WED. A SECOND STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER THE BERING SEA THU AND TO THE CHUKCHI SEA THU NIGHT.

SURFACE... A 1003 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT HOPE WILL MOVE
TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY 3AM WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW STRETCHING FROM POINT HOPE TO ANVIK WILL MOVE TO
DEADHORSE TO FAIRBANKS BY 3AM WED THEN DISSIPATE ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER WED MORNING. CURRENTLY SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAUSING HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE FRONT ALONG WITH
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING 20-40 KT AND 1-3 INCHES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THE STRONGEST WIDNS AND HEAVIEST SNOW ARE NORTH OF KOTZEBUE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT WITH JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY THE TIMES IT REACHES
THE EASTERN INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR BRIEFLY
WEST OF THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR WILL BUILD OVER ALL OF THE
INTERIOR WED...THEN WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THU.

A 998 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTH OF NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 80 NM
NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 1000 MB LOW BY 3AM WED...AND TO 300
NM NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND A 996 MB LOW BY 3PM WED. A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THIS LOW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO THE
LOW TO CAPE LISBURNE THEN SW TO THE GULF OF ANADYR BY 3AM WED THEN
WILL MOVE TO 300 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND TO CAPE LISBURNE TO
THE GULF OF ANADYR BY 3PM WED THEN REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH
THU. EXPECT 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT EACH 12HR
PERIOD...WITH 4-6 INCHES IN UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL ALSO SEE SW WINDS
20-30 KT ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. IF THERE
IS ANY RAIN WITH THIS EXPECT IT TO BE SW OF NOME AND ONLY AFFECT
ZONE 213. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES 201 202 207
208 AND 213 STARTING 15Z WED.

A STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA AS A 993 MB LOW BY 3PM WED...TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
AS A 1000 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW BY
3AM FRI...AND TO 200 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE AS A 1008 MB LOW BY 3PM
FRI. EXPECT ANOTHER 6-12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM IN NW
ALASKA WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN UPSLOPE AREAS. WILL SEE S WINDS
20-30 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND GUSTS TO 40KT. THIS WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
ALONG THE WEST COAST THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THU. FROM FRI ON START TO
SEE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND ACCOMPANYING
SNOW AND WINDS BUT CONTINUE WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ208.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ217.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB FEB 15