Gale Warning 155, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT
TERM. THEY HAVE SHOWN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF FEATURES. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO
NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
RIDGING EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PACIFIC TO CORDOVA TO WAINWRIGHT THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM DEASE LAKE BC TO DAWSON YT TO
POINT LAY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO SLIDE NE OVER THE
EASTERN ARCTIC AND CANADA. A 494 DAM LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
STATIONARY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LATE FRIDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE UP THE
BACK OF THE RIDGE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MOST WILL BE JUST
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...BUT A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF
THE PACIFIC TONIGHT TO LIE FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY TO BIG LAKE TO
SKAGWAY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FROM NORTON SOUND TO MINCHUMINA
TO MCCARTHY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND FROM ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
TO RED DOG TO COLDFOOT TO CHALKYITSIK BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A
RELATIVELY STRONG EAST TO WEST GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...12Z UPPER AIR OUT OF
FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 3 CELSIUS BELOW. AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT A SURGE OF WARM AIR WILL PUSH THE
TEMPERATURE OVER FAIRBANKS TO AROUND 3 ABOVE CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN A COOL DOWN TO AROUND 1 CELSIUS BELOW BEFORE
ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SURGE OF WARM AIR OVER THE WEST COAST TONIGHT...THEN COLD AIR
ADVECTION SETS IN. ON THE ARCTIC COAST NOT MUCH HAPPENING. VERY
STRONG WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH THIS EVENING. WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 50 KTS AND OVERNIGHT TO ALMOST
100 KTS WEST OF TOKLAT IN THE ALASKA RANGE. WINDS IN THE REMAINDER
OF THE RANGE INCREASE TO 50 TO 70 KTS TONIGHT.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND 962 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS
THIS MORNING EXTENDS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTH OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA. THE LOW MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF ST MATTHEW
THIS EVENING...THEN MERGES WITH A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA TONIGHT AND DRIFTS WEST AS IT WEAKENS TO 970 MB. WEAK
RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER. A LOW THAT DEVELOPED IN
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTH TO PORT
HEIDEN TONIGHT...AND TO KUSKOKWIM BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 951
MB...CONTINUING TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY AS IT
WEAKENS TO 967 MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN NORTH OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE UP TO 24 MB OF GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COVER MOST OF THE
WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONTINUES TO BE PRETTY QUIET
COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER...BANDS OF CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TOMORROW EXPECT STRATUS TO MOVE BACK OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME FLURRIES. WINDS GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE WEST COAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...BIG MIXED BAG OUT HERE WITH
AREAS OF SNOW TODAY...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. THEN WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM EVEN MORE WARM AIR SURGING NORTH OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA
AND NORTON SOUND WITH BRING MORE RAIN THAN SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. IT WILL ALSO BRING QUITE A BIT OF WIND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
60 MPH AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTON SOUND. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON AND KOTZEBUE REGION...THOUGH GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND KOTZEBUE SOUND. STILL
EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND 100 MPH IN THE WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE. NOT A LOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WHAT WE
SEE WILL BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH COOLING
OCCURRING...THEN WARMER TOMORROW.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
GETS CHINOOKED OUT. TEMPERATURES STEADY TONIGHT WITH NOT MUCH
COOLING...THEN WARMER TOMORROW. HIGHS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE WILL
RISE TO THE MID 40S IN SOME AREAS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AS FAR
NORTH AS FAIRBANKS IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. STRONG WINDS WILL
BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT WINDS TO AROUND
20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS NENANA AND OVER THE TANANA
FLATS.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-
AKZ227.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB DEC 15