Gale Warning 127, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
557 AM AKST SUN NOV 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. WEAK UPPER LOW STACKED WITH WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO CANADA.
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL HAS
ENDED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE
FROM THE YK DELTA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW INTO ZONE 227 AND THEN IT WILL SKIRT THE ALASKA RANGE AND
PROVIDE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BUT NOTHING TO ORGANIZED.

THE NEXT BIG SHOW IS WINDING UP IN THE BERING SEA. IT WILL MOVE ON
TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY MON MORNING. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITH IT. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW...THE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND WILL
DRAW ITS AXIS OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY MON EVENING WHICH WILL LEAD
TO FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL.

WINTER STORM AND BLIZZARD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARLY ALL
OF THE WEST COAST ZONES.

THE CURRENT MODEL RUN DOES INDICATE THAT THE THIS NEXT STORM MAY
NOT HAVE THE DYNAMICS AS THE PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED GIVEN THAT
THE SURFACE WINDS ARE WEAKER AND COVE A MUCH SMALLER AREA. THIS IS
ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SURGE GUIDANCE WHICH NOW INDICATES THAT THE
SURGE WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...THE
SURGE VALUES ARE STILL QUITE HIGH..FOR THE YK DELTA AND NORTON
SOUND ONCE THE LOW DRAWS NEARER.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AT THIS MOMENT FOR THERE TO BE MUCH IF ANY
LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW BUT LATER ON IN THE WEEK THE
NEXT LOW MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT AS IT DOES TAP INTO VERY WARM AIR
AND USHERS IT INTO THE STATE WITH THE MOISTURE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ209-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ215-
AKZ216-AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215.
&&

CF NOV 15