Gale Warning 111, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
121 PM AKST THU NOV 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA IN
BRISTOL BAY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND CONTINUE PUSHING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO WESTERN CANADA.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL BEGIN
MOVING EASTWARD TO BE IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY EARLY SAT
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE BERING STRAIT BY SUN EVENING AND AT
THE SAME TIME IT TAPS IN TO A COLD DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR THE NORTH
POLE. THIS WILL DRAIN VERY COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE UPPER NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AS LOW IN BRISTOL BAY MOVES EASTWARD THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
WINDS THROUGH THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TO BE IN THE HIGH ADVISORY
CATEGORY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC COMBINED WITH THE THE STRONG
LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY AND AND INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE WELL BELOW THE WARNING LEVEL. EXPECT AMOUNTS IN SOME
AREAS SUCH AS SOUTHERN ZONE 216 AND NORTHEASTERN 215 TO RECEIVE
SOMEWHERE AROUND 4 INCHES. SEVERAL AREAS THROUGHOUT THE INTERIOR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL SEE MAYBE AN INCH OR
SO.

MODERATELY STRONG CHINOOK FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE HAS RESULTED IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...ZONES 211...212 AND 214.
AS A STRONG LOW MOVES TO NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE FETCH MAY NOT BE THAT
LONG FOR ZONE 211 IT DOES APPEAR THAT AT LEAST HIGH SURF WILL BE
SEEN THERE AS WELL AS ZONES 212 AND 214. ZONE 214 HAS A
POTENTIALLY BIGGER RISK AS THE FETCH WOULD BE MUCH GREATER AS WELL
AS THE DURATION OF HIGH WINDS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CF NOV 15