Brisk Wind Advisory 96, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 AM AKDT MON MAR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE
FUZZY ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z RUNS
INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGING RUNS SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE STATE AND WILL SLIDE NORTH AND EAST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STATIONARY 508 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS PUSHES UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO LIE OVER
THE INTERIOR BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE A WEAK
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY NOON TUESDAY THEN
ROTATE NORTH OVER THE INTERIOR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A 545 DAM
HIGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE RIDGING OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL SLOWLY SLIDE NORTH TO BE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 7 CELSIUS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
THE AREA TO AROUND ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TUESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TO 2 TO 4 ABOVE CELSIUS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD ON...BUT THE END IS NEAR AS
THE 979 MB LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR CONTINUE TO SPIN FRONTAL BANDS
NORTH. LEESIDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY WILL
PERSIST WITH WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BROOKS
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT...THE TROUGH
THEN STRENGTHENS UP A LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE GAP FLOW WINDS AS ANOTHER FRONT SPINS UP TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL COAST BY MONDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR
MONDAY EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A BROAD TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP UP THE WEST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1004 MB LOW
DEVELOPS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE AND LEESIDE
TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY. SOME LOCAL GAP
FLOW WINDS IN THE BROOKS RANGE BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE LESS THAN 25
MPH. ON THE COAST EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT AS THE WINDS COME UP A LITTLE THAT
WILL ALL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS
PRODUCT AT 16/0737Z NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG IN THE AREA AND THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PRODUCTS CONFIRM NO
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF LOW CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT THAT MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE CLOUDS ROLL OVER THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW BANDS OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT THAT EACH BAND WILL BRING UP
TO 2 INCHES. ONE OF THE STRONGEST BANDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND
IT WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE NULATO HILLS AND NORTON SOUND REGION. WITH
THE TROUGH HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK EXPECT CLOUDY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL FLURRIES. ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND IT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AS THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
RISE AS THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SLINGS WARM AIR NORTH AND
TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS GET INTO THE
MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS FROM NORTON SOUND
SOUTH WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TO 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET AND WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AS HIGHS REACH THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS SOUTH OF
THE YUKON RIVER AS WEAK CHINOOK FLOW SENDS WARM AIR SURGING
NORTH. DO NOT EXPECT THE FIRST FRONT TO REDEVELOP IN THE BROOKS
RANGE TODAY...BUT THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
TONIGHT AND WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS
RANGE TUESDAY AND MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. CHINOOK WINDS IN
THE ALASKA RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WITH EACH OF THE
FRONTS...EXPECT A LULL IN THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 225 AND 226 GOING THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALSO A LITTLE TANANA VALLEY JET HAS KICKED WINDS IN THE
FLATS UP TO GUSTING AROUND 25 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT WINDS AT
NENANA TO KICK UP A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION AROUND FAIRBANKS...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
GET A FEW SPRINKLES AS THE FRONTS MOVES OVER THE AREA.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 THROUGH 7...SOME CONSENSUS IN THE
MODELS ON DEVELOPMENT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH 546
HPA HIGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND 512 DAM
LOW OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB MAR 15