Brisk Wind Advisory 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 AM AKST FRI FEB 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DRAMATIC WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDERWAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL AMPLIFY DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND NORTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE WITH SUB-TROPICAL ORIGINS WILL
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ALASKA RANGE
AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL BLOCK MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT A MIXED
BAG OF PRECIPTIATION IS INEVITABLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND KNOCK THE RIDGE OVER INTO CANADA...THUS USHERING IN
COOLER AIR ACROSS THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA. SNOW HAS MIXED WITH RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY. WARM
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AND SOME BRIEF FREEZING RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE CHUKCHI SEA AND KOBUK RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH AT SATURDAY AS A SECOND SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALOFT OVER THE WEST
COAST SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEY.

SOUTHERLY CHINOOK WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVEL ACROSS
THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH IN PASSES. A ROGUE HIGHER GUST IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN THE WINDIEST LOCATIONS. ALONG WITH THE
WINDS...TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WELL INTO THE 40S ALONG THE ALASKA
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND AS THE CHINOOK SLIGHTLY
WEAKENS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

EWP FEB 15