Brisk Wind Advisory 6, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
240 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...SIMILAR SOLUTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM. GFS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE TEMPERATURES WAY TOO COLD FOR MOST AREAS SO WILL LEAN ON
THE CURRENT GRIDDED TEMPERATURES TWEAKED TOWARD THE NAM AND BLEND
IN A LITTLE GFS TO DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...554 DAM RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A 555 DAM RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE BORDER TONIGHT. THE 555 DAM
RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT. A TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM THE HIGH
ARCTIC SOUTH OVER WAINWRIGHT TO HUSLIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FROM OVER THE NORTH POLE TO NUIQSUT TO MINCHUMINA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...AND FROM THE NORTH POLE TO BARTER ISLAND TO A
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE YUKON FLATS TO DENALI PARK BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA AT 564 DAM THEN MOVES EAST OVER BARROW BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT 559 DAM...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE
YUKON TERRITORY THURSDAY. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
5 TO 12 CELSIUS WILL COOL 3 TO 6 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

SURFACE...1035MB HIGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL COMBINE WITH A
1044MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 1051MB. A 1035MB HIGH OVER THE
YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL SLIP SOUTH OVER ALBERTA WITH
WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE YUKON THROUGH TUESDAY.

ARCTIC COAST...SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. CLOUDS SPREADING EAST TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW BUT AS THE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND ACCUMULATION OF UP TO AN INCH. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5
TO 15 MPH TODAY SWITCHING AROUND TO SOUTHWEST AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES FLAT TODAY THEN WARMING AS THE CLOUDS SPREAD
EAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY ON THE
COAST...CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR. SOME FLURRIES OF SNOW SHOWERS ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND IN THE BERING STRAIT SPREADING NORTHEAST TO
THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND KOTZEBUE SOUND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN
THOSE AREAS. WINDS ON THE COAST GENERALLY SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. STRONGER WINDS IN THE BERING
STRAIT THIS MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA. WINDS IN THE INLAND AREAS WILL BE LIGHT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
AROUND FAIRBANKS THAT MEANS HIGHS AROUND ZERO AND LOWS AROUND 20
BELOW. TANANA JET HAS KICKED IN AROUND DELTA SO WARMER WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH IN THAT AREA. EXPECT TANANA JET TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS WE GET INTO MIDWEEK WITH WINDS KICKING UP
AROUND NENANA TO GUSTING TO 25 MPH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL OF
COURSE BE WARMER IN THOSE WINDY AREAS. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE THE
YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 15