Brisk Wind Advisory 53, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z
ANALYSIS. DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL IN BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE
MID TERM AND DISPLAY EXPECTED LEVELS OF SEPARATION IN THE LONG
TERM. RELIED ON A BLEND OF THE INHERITED FORECAST AND 00Z GFS FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ALOFT AT 500 HPA AN 498M DAM LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 250 NM NORTH
OF DEMARCATION POINT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG A SHORT WAVE EXTENDING
FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST TO PASC EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH SLOPE
TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE MACKENZIE DELTA THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
AND SOUTHERN YUKON TONIGHT AND WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A SHORT
WAVE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL
MOVE EAST AND WILL DRIVE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND WILL BE LOCATED FROM PABR TO NEAR PAOM. EASTERLY
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL BE LIMITED AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
YUKON HOLDS FAST.

ON THE SURFACE...A 969 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL DRIFT
NORTH AND INCREASE THE EASTERLY GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS ON THE SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR WILL
INITIATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW HOWEVER TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
ENOUGH THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED.

OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPPING AROUND THE PRIMARY LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY
AND A SECONDARY LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND ONLY SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. WARM AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR.
LIGHT SNOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY AS THE LOW
SOUTH OF KODIAK MOVES NORTH TO NEAR COLD BAY AND OCCLUDED FRONT
MOVES NORTHWEST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
YK DELTA NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

CCC FEB 15