Brisk Wind Advisory 25, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
157 AM AKST SUN JAN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
06Z INITIALIZATION HANDLED WELL AS COMPARED TO THE 06Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS WITH
BOTH GFS AND NAM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE MID TERM
ESPECIALLY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY
MID WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA 492 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GULF OF
ANADYR WHILE A FLATTENED RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEAST TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL EXTEND FROM ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND TO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY MORNING AND ALONG A
KOTZEBUE TO GALENA TO ANCHORAGE LINE TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHORT
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM
POINT HOPE TO FORT YUKON TUESDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THE SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AT FAIRBANKS WILL DROP FROM MINUS 5 C ON SUNDAY MORNING TO MINUS
10 C ON MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER A RETURN TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CREATE WEAK CHINOOK CONDITIONS IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR
FROM FAIRBANKS EAST.

ON THE SURFACE...A 986 MB LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT WILL WEAKEN
TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST TO BE LOCATED NEAR CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA SUNDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATES INTO A TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE BERING STRAIT MONDAY MORNING AS A BUBBLE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BEHIND A FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM NEAR BARROW SOUTH TO JUST WEST OF FAIRBANKS MONDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE FRONT IN
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE WHILE ONLY SCATTERED
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN MOST
AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 201 WHERE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH 9AM SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING AND END TO THE
LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AS A BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CLEARING SKIES ALONG
WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THE DECAYING FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND
SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR TODAY AND MONDAY.
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MITIGATED BY CLOUD COVER WITH
ONLY MODEST COOLING REALIZED AT MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS...HOWEVER EXPECT SUB ADVISORY
SOUTHERLY GAP FLOWS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CCC JAN 15