Brisk Wind Advisory 240, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
228 PM AKST MON DEC 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT WHEN INITIALIZED AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVES. WILL
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY BY USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE
CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...DYNAMIC PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGING EXTENDS FROM SITKA TO FAIRBANKS TO KOTZEBUE SOUND
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO LIE DAWSON YT TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
CAPE LISBURNE LATE THIS EVENING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL MOVE TO LIE FROM TELLER TO HUSLIA TO FAIRBANKS TO
YAKUTAT LATE THIS EVENING...AND OVER CANADA TONIGHT. THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING
FROM 522 DAM TO AROUND 540 DAM BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAIRBANKS AREA. THE DRIVER OVER THE SHORTWAVES IS A 488 DAM LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT WILL MOVE FROM NEAR ATKA TO OVER
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN NORTHWEST OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS TO 494 DAM.
A RAPIDLY MOVING STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH UP THE BACK OF
THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TO LIE
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND FROM
KUSKOKWIM BAY TO TALKEETNA TO SKAGWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE INTERIOR BY AFTERNOON...BUT THE POSITION IS NOT VERY
CLEAR AS IT CLIMBS THE BACK OF THE RIDGE. AT 850 HPA...12Z UPPER
AIR OUT OF FAIRBANKS HAD THE TEMPERATURE AT 2.2 CELSIUS BELOW.
AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING BEHIND IT.
ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE
TEMPERATURE OVER FAIRBANKS TO AROUND 3 ABOVE CELSIUS ON WEDNESDAY.
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED ON THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC SLOPE.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 956 MB LOW NEAR ATKA
EXTENDS EAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR . WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A
WEAK LOW NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LOW IN THE ARCTIC MERGES WITH A LOW IN THE HIGH
ARCTIC. THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE LOW
OVER THE ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE PRIBILOFS. AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES NORTH THE RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR STRENGTHENS A BIT TONIGHT...THEN STARTS GETTING
PUSHED OUT TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES NORTH. RIDGING OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AS
LEESIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT FRONT MOVES NORTH A VERY STRONG GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE WITH VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER SUMMITS ON WEDNESDAY. A 967 MB LOW
MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY EVENING TO THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE LOWER KOBUK
THURSDAY MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BANDS OF STRATUS WITH FLURRIES
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER THE ARCTIC CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST WITH SOME STRATUS ALSO OVER THE PLAINS. ALL OF THE
STRATUS SHOWS UP PRETTY WELL ON THE NPP VIIRS SPORT NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS RGB AT 28/1332Z. AS THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE THE
STRATUS WILL FOLLOW...SO EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT
WITH A RETURN OF CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL HAVE
WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 MPH SOUTH OF POINT LAY TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE REST OF THE ARCTIC COAST ON TUESDAY TO 10
TO 20 MPH.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...KIND OF A MESS OUT WEST WITH
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE FRONTS MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND WARM AIR SURGES NORTH.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA AND NULATO HILLS SEEING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS.
WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR Z215 AND ISSUE A NEW ONE FOR Z216
FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING AS THE LOWS MOVE
NORTH IN THE BERING SEA AND INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA LATER IN THE
WEEK. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WHEN WINDS GUSTING TO 80 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
CONSTRAINED NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE SUMMITS ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS IN THE
COASTAL AREAS WILL PICK UP A BIT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
WEDNESDAY AND IN KOTZEBUE SOUND ON THURSDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES
INLAND AS WARM AIR SURGES NORTH...COASTAL AREAS WILL NOT SEE AS
MUCH CHANGE BUT WILL BE WARMER.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO
MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AS THE MOISTURE SKIPS OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE NEXT COUPLE SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES MUCH
WARMER AS CHINOOK IS SET UP ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE. SOME COOLING
BETWEEN SYSTEMS..WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG ACROSS THE RANGE
SO THAT WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR FROM SINKING TO THE SURFACE. WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WINDS WARNING FOR THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES Z225
AND Z226 AS WELL AS Z223. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS...BUT
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE EVEN STRONGER AFTER ABOUT A 24 HOUR BREAK.
EXPECT SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER SUMMITS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. LOOKS LIKE SNOW ON TAP FOR THE INTERIOR THURSDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ227.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

SDB DEC 15