Brisk Wind Advisory 227, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1257 PM AKST FRI DEC 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AS FAR AS FEATURE POSITION HOWEVER THE
NAM...GFS AND ECMWF WERE ALL 3 TO 4 MB TOO HIGH ON SURFACE
PRESSURE ON LATEST BERING SEA STORM. MODEL SPREAD WAS REASONABLE
IN THE SHORT AND MID TERM BUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN LARGE IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODEL FAMILIES WITH CURRENT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN EVOLVING INTO A
MORE BLOCKED PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

ONGOING STORM IN THE BERING SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 943
MB AND LOCATED NEAR 57N AND THE DATELINE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AS
IT MOVES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO BE LOCATED 150 NM WEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING AS A 954 MB LOW AND JUST EAST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 970 MB SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER YK DELTA AND EXTENDING TO NEAR ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS AND SNOW DECREASE SATURDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FORM ZONE S 213 AND 214 WITH HIGH
WINDS AND SNOW CREATING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ZONES 211 AND 215 FOR BLOWING
SNOW AND SNOW.

WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE TONIGHT HAS PROMPTED WINDS ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 226 AND 223
WITH 45KTS AT 850 MB LIKELY TO MIX TO SURFACE AND PUSH THROUGH
GAPS IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST TO NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG A PAMC TO PAFA TO PABA LINE SATURDAY AND
A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF PABA SATURDAY EVENING. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF WINTER HEADLINES ALONG THE
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE COAST AND DEEPENS TO NEAR 990 MB AND CREATES
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WEST WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE COAST
EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE BEGINNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT
WEEK AND DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK IN THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THERE ARE HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE LENGTH AND SEVERITY OF POTENTIAL COLD SNAP NEXT WEEK
BETWEEN COMPUTER MODELS...CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ211-AKZ215.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

CCC DEC 15