Brisk Wind Advisory 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1248 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL
AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL IN USING THE
GFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAN MAINLY ON THE
NAM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

ALOFT...575 DAM RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE WEST COAST FROM OREGON TO
THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TO A 541 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA TODAY AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS
IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. A COL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AS
THE RIDGE STRETCHES OUT AND A 507 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
ARCTIC THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DRIFTS NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING
STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING. A 506 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH
PACIFIC TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY
MORNING BECOMING STATIONARY...THEN DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH IN THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE BEING DAMPENED OUT BY THE RIDGE. AT 850
MB...POOL OF ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS AIR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND SLOSHES OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN
THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND A 962MB LOW
SOUTH OF SAND POINT TODAY WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND
MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AT
967MB. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 975MB WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES
TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE WINDS WILL
BE UP AND DOWN AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE RANGE AND THE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND WEAKENS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...BUT GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE ARCTIC
AS LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PUSHES NORTH A LITTLE AND THE HIGH
OVER THE ARCTIC REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY. EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PEAKING ON
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN. THIS WILL BRING SOME VISIBILITY
ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY
WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THOSE DAYS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING
ON TODAY...GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 14/1715Z AND
THE SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT 14/1523Z NOT
INDICATING ANYTHING IMMINENT. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM
PRUDHOE BAY EAST TONIGHT IF IT STAYS TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES ON THE
RISE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN OVER THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA...PRIMARILY ZONE 214 AND 215...FRIDAY MORNING
AS THEY GET SOME 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO CELSIUS BEFORE
COOLING BEGINS. EXPECT WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRAIT TO
CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS ON ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST MAY BE GUSTING TO
AROUND 60 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW CREATING VISIBILITY ISSUES BY
LATE THURSDAY SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA.
ALSO...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT ALL THE WAY
TO POINT HOPE AND POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW SO WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF KIVALINA.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH
NORTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH IN THE
FORM OF PRECIPITATION AS IT IS CHINOOKED OUT. NORTH OF FAIRBANKS
SOME AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE VERY
PATCHY. WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND IN
THE DELTA AREA...EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY.

COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 15