Brisk Wind Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

451 
FZAK52 PAFG 012338
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021445-
238 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1018 MB LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DISIPATE THIS EVENING. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FRI MORNING.
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA
TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRI AND TO ALONG 170W
SAT.

$$

PKZ200-021445-
NORTON SOUND-
238 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-021445-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
238 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO
14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...SE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-021445-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
238 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 5 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-021445-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
238 PM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT.
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 10 KT. 
.MON...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

EWP/ET JAN 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
419 AM AKST THU JAN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC
AND WESTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MIGRATE EAST ACROSS ALASKA CUTTING
THROUGH THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM DENALI TO CHICKEN WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT SNOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY FROM THIS WITH
ANOTHER 1 INCH ACCUMULATION.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO BETHEL WILL MOVE TO
THE BERING STRAIT TO MCGRATH BY 3PM THU THEN DISSIPATING IN PLACE
TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -8C TO -12C WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES
OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SURFACE...
A 1042 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WITH A RIDGE SE OVER THE
MACKENZIE RIVER WILL PERSIST TODAY THEN MOVE SE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

A 1016 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL MOVE WEST TODAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO WAINWRIGHT TO EAGLE
WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. AREAS OF SNOW WITH THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH
TO FLURRIES TODAY. EAST WINDS 20-30KT AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL DECREASE TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND THE
GRADIENT DECREASES.

AREAS OF STRATUS AND DENSE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT WILL THIN BY LATE THU MORNING.

A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NE GULF OF ALASKA AS
A 991 MB LOW BY 3PM THU...AND THEN MOVE NE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TODAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE NE WINDS 20-30 KT IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES TODAY.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL TO THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT. WILL SEE 1 INCH OF SNOW AND A
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS FRONT. WILL ALSO SEE SE WINDS 25 KT WITH
FRONT.

A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA
TONIGHT WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRI AND TO ALONG 170W
SAT. WILL SEE MORE RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THIS FRONT ALONG WITH SE
GALES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH FRI.
SIMILAR ON LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JB JAN 15