Brisk Wind Advisory 18, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SIBERIA TO THE
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THU. THE PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER
EASTERN SIBERIA AND WESTERN ALASKA WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA BY FRI AFTERNOON. THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER AREAS
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS. IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW SOUTH OF THE
NORTH GULF COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND TODAY
WHILE GRADUALLY DAMPENING OUT.

SURFACE...
A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR TODAY AND THEN STALL OUT TONIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN PARTS OF ZONES 224...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES
OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS. IN ZONE 222...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
BE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS. IN ZONE
221...ABOUT 1 INCH IS EXPECTED...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE
EXTREME EASTERN PARTS. AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED
IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

CURRENT MODELS ARE INDICATING EAST WINDS 40-50 KT AT 850 AND 900
MB ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ZONE 219. WILL ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITY OVER
HIGHER SUMMITS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WED...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLOWLY WED NIGHT AND THU. INDIAN
MOUNTAIN HAS REPORTED SOME WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH OVERNIGHT.

BRISK EAST WINDS WITH LOCALLY POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW
AND WIND CHILL AS LOW AS 50 BELOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM POINT LAY WEST TODAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED. SOME DECREASE IN THE WINDS IS EXPECTED WED NIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE BEAUFORT SEAS WEAKENS AND RECEDES
NORTH...REDUCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST.

IN THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK PERIOD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE MAINLAND...WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
CANADA...AND PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
MAINLAND. INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THE COLDEST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE HELD OFF FARTHER TO
THE WEST...OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING SEA AND EASTERN
SIBERIA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ219-AKZ224.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230.

&&

RF JAN 15