Brisk Wind Advisory 166, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
356 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT AT INITIALIZATION. MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON WHAT TO DO WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE UPPER YUKON
FLATS TONIGHT. GFS WANTS TO KEEP IT A TROUGH WHILE OTHER MODELS
ARE CLOSING IT OFF AS HEIGHTS FALL TO AROUND 562 DAM. NAM HAS BEEN
WORKING PRETTY GOOD OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM SO
WILL LEAN ON IT A BIT HEAVIER IN THE BLENDS. EXTENDED PERIODS IN
THE MODELS HAVE QUITE A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS SO LOOKS LIKE THE
WPC GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...A 574 DAM HIGH OVER EAGLE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE 558 DAM CLOSED LOW THAT UNDERCUT THE HIGH AND IS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA INTERIOR. A SHORTWAVE LIES FROM THE
BERING STRAIT TO COOK INLET THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TO LIE FROM OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BUCKLAND TO RUBY TO VALDEZ BY
MID AFTERNOON TODAY...THEN FROM OVER WRANGEL ISLAND TO POINT LAY
TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO GLENNALLEN BY LATE THIS EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AS A 562 DAM LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE YUKON FLATS NEAR BEAVER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LIE FROM OVER WAINWRIGHT TO THE LOW OVER FORT YUKON
TO GLENNALLEN FRIDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUES EAST TO LIE FROM
DEADHORSE TO THE LOW OVER CHALKYITSIK TO NORTHWAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT CONTINUES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY FRIDAY EVENING.
A SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
WEST COAST TONIGHT AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A 516 DAM LOW IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SURFACE...THE THERMAL TROUGH LIES FROM POINT LAY TO BETTLES TO
CENTRAL TO EAGLE THEN EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THIS MORNING
AND WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1031 MB
RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTING FROM BARROW EAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE WEST. A
1030 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY. A 975 MB LOW NEAR AMCHITKA WILL MOVE NORTH IN
THE BERING SEA AND BE NEAR 58N 180 BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING SEA
AND WEST COAST AND BERING STRAIT. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WEATHER FRONT MOVES
TO THE BROOKS RANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL
BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAIN FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
COLVILLE AND SAG RIVER DRAINAGES. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING SO
WILL PUT UP HEADLINES FOR THE MORNING HOURS FROM BARROW EAST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY EXCEPT EAST OF
WAINWRIGHT WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS THE WEATHER FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT AFTER THE UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS EXPECT SOME COOL AIR TO FLOW SOUTH CHANGING IT TO SNOW
EAST OF BARROW TONIGHT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
BY MID AFTERNOON SO LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
A PERIOD OF RAIN NORTH OF GALENA BEFORE IT STARTS TO CLEAR. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INLAND. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF AMBLER
THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN ZONE 218, EASTERN ZONE 219, WEST OF
FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220, NORTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS IN ZONE
221, NORTH OF FAIRBANKS IN ZONE 222, FROM DELTA JUNCTION EAST IN
ZONE 223, MOST OF ZONE 224, AND EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN
ZONE 226. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER TODAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED DRY OVER THE AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME WETTING RAINS WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT. DRIEST AREAS TODAY
WILL BE EASTERN ZONE 224 AND EAST OF FORT YUKON IN ZONE 220. SOME
GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH FROM
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER...AND WE HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETED GREENUP...EVEN THOUGH FUELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...CONCERNED ABOUT THE RIVERS DRAINING INTO THE SAG AND
COLVILLE RIVERS BRINGING THEM BACK UP TO NEAR ACTION STAGE AS
SOME HEAVIER RAINS OF AROUND ONE INCH FALL INTO THOSE DRAINAGES.
WILL BRIEF THE ONCOMING CREW ABOUT POTENTIAL FLOOD WATCH NEEDED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.

&&

SDB MAY 15