Brisk Wind Advisory 151, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1251 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AND CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC
SLOPE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY ABOVE
NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST REMAINS IN PLACE...CONTINUING
A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND. CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL A BIT COOLER SAT AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA...BUT WILL
REBOUND SUN AFTER THE SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHWARD AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AND ARCTIC
SLOPE.

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANT OVER THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK EASTWARD
THEN CURVE NORTHWARD INTO NORTON SOUND BY SAT MORNING WHILE
OPENING UP INTO A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA COAST BY SAT EVENING...THEN TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA SUN.

WEST COAST...
RAIN OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FRI AND
CHANCE POPS FRI NIGHT. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SAT WITH THE
NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE.

ARCTIC COAST...
EAST WINDS WILL DECREASE VERY SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SAT.
SNOW LIKELY MOST AREAS WEST OF BARROW TONIGHT...WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCE OF SNOW FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED EAST OF BARROW.

WESTERN INTERIOR...
RAIN MOST AREAS TONIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS
FRI...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN
AREAS FRI NIGHT.

EASTERN INTERIOR...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
AS THE NORTHWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRANSITS THE
INTERIOR. IN ZONE 225-226...LOCAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN PASSES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. GUSTS TO 25-40 MPH
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION IN ZONE 223 CONTINUING THROUGH FRI
NIGHT. WINDS IN ALL OF THESE AREAS DIMINISHING BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR...
RED FLAGS REMAIN UP FOR ZONES 220-221-222-223-224-225-226.
MIN HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO DROP TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN MOST
OF THESE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT IN ZONES 225-226...WITH RED FLAG
GUSTS IN ZONE 223.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE BROOKS RANGES AND ARCTIC SLOPE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. SNOWMELT IN THE
BROOKS RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL STAGES ON
RIVERS DRAINING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BROOKS RANGE. HIGH LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAGAVANIRKTOK RIVER...THE RIVER AT PUMP
STATION IS EXPECTED TO CREEP UP SLOWLY...POSSIBLY REACHING
FLOOD STAGE MON. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR RIVERS WILL
REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-
AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONES 225-226.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

RF MAY 15