Brisk Wind Advisory 137, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1213 PM AKDT THU APR 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION OVER THE AREA WITH MAJOR FEATURES
INITIALIZING WITHIN A COUPLE MILLIBARS. CONTINUITY FROM RUN TO
RUN CONTINUES TO BE GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. MID RANGE AND
EXTENDED PERIODS HAVE QUITE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. FOR THE SHORT
TERM WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF MODELS TO SMOOTH TIMING DIFFERENCES.
WILL JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS WITH A BLEND OF THE
MODELS WITH A TWEAK UP A DEGREE OR SO IN THE INTERIOR FOR
TOMORROW.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...508 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY EVENING THEN
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A
509 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 553 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES WILL PERSIST WITH RIDGING PUSHING WEST OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF AND THE RIDGE OVER CANADA
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR WILL BRING A WEAK
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. AT 850 HPA...WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES...IN THE
INTERIOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AND EAST OF TANANA EVEN
WARMER ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP 4 TO 8 DEGREES AND PUSH
THE FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR UP TO AROUND 6000
FEET BY MONDAY.

SURFACE...988 MB LOW IN THE BERING SEA WITH A BROAD AREA CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA
BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 995 MB LOW NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC. A 1050 MB HIGH OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH AND WEST OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF
THE ALASKA AND BROOKS RANGES AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE
RIDGE WEAKENS.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WEAK RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER
THE AREA...WITH THAT COMES WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE FLOW.
TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
CLEARING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE
GULF THE FLOW WILL SWING AROUND TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ARCTIC STRATUS TO PUSH BACK ONSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS
THAN 15 MPH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AS THE PERSISTENT LOW MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OUT
OF THE AREA. EXPECT A FEW PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...BUT
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE PRECIPITATION END
WITH SOME CLEARING. CLEARING ON THE COAST WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY EVENING AS OFFSHORE FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST BEGINS.
INLAND AREAS WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING.
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST...AND
LIGHT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...QUIET TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND UP A FEW DEGREES WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST AREAS AND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER...HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S TO THE NORTH. WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO HELP
MAKE US A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL LEAD
TO SOME RAINSHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS
WEEKEND...AND AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IT MAY HELP TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS.

EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
AROUND THE LOW IN THE GULF. RIDGING OVER CANADA WILL ALLOW THE
AREAS TO CONTINUE TO WARM AS A CONTINENTAL PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER
INTERIOR ALASKA WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT MORE SHOWERY TYPE PRECIPITATION AND
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
A BETTER CHANCE ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
FAIRBANKS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE
30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERY TO 70 PERCENT OR BETTER AT NIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...EXCEPT GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH NEAR
ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND CHANNELED AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245.

&&

SDB APR 15