Brisk Wind Advisory 126, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
111 AM AKDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
LIGHT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE LATER TONIGHT. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR SAT THROUGH SUN AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. RIDGE AXIS LATE SAT
NIGHT WILL EXTEND FROM WRANGEL ISLAND TO BARROW THEN SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHEAST ALASKA AND INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA. BY LATE SUN NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL WARM NOTICEABLY OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS OF
ABOVE...WITH SOME INTERIOR AREAS AS WARM AS +6 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
SAT EVENING.

AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 49N/176W WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SAT NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN INTO A BROAD LOW
CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY SUN AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...
A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NORTHWEST ALASKA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SWING
NORTHWESTWARD TO EXTEND ALONG THE WEST COAST BY SAT AFTERNOON.
BY LATE SAT NIGHT THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CHUKOTSK
PENINSULA TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ANCHORED BY A 985 MB LOW NEAR
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND A 980 MB LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA. BY
SUN AFTERNOON...THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A 984 MB CENTER
NEAR BETHEL WHILE THE NORTHERN 985 MB LOW REMAINS NEAR ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND.

OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS ARE IN PROGRESS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS APPROACHING THE 50 MPH ADVISORY THRESHOLD
NORTH OF ISABEL PASS. WINDS GUSTS TO 50-65 MPH ARE EXPECTED SAT
THROUGH SUN IN AND NEAR WINDY AND ISABEL PASSES AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE. WINDS AT 700 MB AND 800 MB ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE MAX
OUT AT 50 KT AND LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 60 KT.

OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
TYPES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SWINGING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE WEST COAST. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW LATE TONIGHT OVER ZONES 214-215-
SOUTHERN 212. THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD
AND WESTWARD SAT. BY SAT AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IN ZONES 214-215 AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. BY LATE SAT NIGHT...THE TRANSITION TO RAIN
OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS THE
BERING STRAIT COAST AND TO SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY
REDUCE VISIBILITY OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
SAT EVENING...AND ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY SAT EVENING.

OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY...WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS...FLURRIES AND FOG.
EAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH 25-35 MPH WINDS EXPECTED OVER MOST AREAS BY SUN.

INTERIOR TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
BE WARM...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 50 IN THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR. SOME SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH COULD APPROACH OR GO BELOW 30 PERCENT IN WINDY
AREAS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. CURRENT AFS FUEL CONDITIONS
ARE GREEN IN ZONE 226 AND ORANGE (CONSULT) IN ZONE 225.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY...PKZ210.
WIND ADVISORY...AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

&&

RF APR 15