Brisk Wind Advisory 119, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
436 AM AKDT TUE APR 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ALCAN BORDER WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC AND BERING SEA.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG SOUTH FLOW ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY WILL WEAKEN WED AND MORE SO ON THU.
THIS MEANS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK
THEN SLOWLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG CHINOOK WINDS OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE WILL REACH A PEAK TODAY AND THEN DECREASE TONIGHT
INTO WED.

SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THU.

A 980 MB LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY.
AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THIS LOW TO GAMBELL TO THE BERING STRAIT TO
POINT HOPE WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. SNOW WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG
THIS FRONT WILL DIMINISH TODAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM POINT HOPE TO ANVIK WITH A
FRONTAL WAVE NEAR KODIAK. THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR
KALTAG AS A 980 MB LOW BY 4PM TUE...TO NEAR SHISHMAREF AS A 982 MB
LOW BY 4AM WED...TO NEAR POINT HOPE AS A 986 MB LOW BY 4PM WED.
WILL SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AND ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES TONIGHT ALONG
THIS STATIONARY FRONT. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
BUCKLAND AND HUSLIA THIS AFTERNOON SO THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
NORTH OF BUCKLAND AND HUSLIA. EXPECT STORM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES
NORTH OF BUCKLAND AND HUSLIA. DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING RAIN DUE TO
STRONG WINDS AND WELL MIXED AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL WAVE.

WILL SEE EAST WINDS 25-35KT TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE COAST
NORTH OF KOTZEBUE AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
WAVE. WILL SEE LOW VSBY IN BLOWING SNOW OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND
NW ARCTIC THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FROM EAGLE TO TANANA TO GOLOVIN TO KING
SALMON WILL MOVE TO EAGLE TO BUCKLAND TO ANVIK BY 4PM TUE...TO
OLD CROW TO BUCKLAND TO ANVIK BY 4AM WED AND TO ARCTIC VILLAGE TO
DENALI BY 4PM WED. WILL SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT.

A LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AS A 978 MB LOW BY 4AM THU. THIS WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW TO ZONES 213 214 215 LATE WED AND THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THU. THE
FRONTAL WAVE NEAR KODIAK WILL MOVE NW TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THERE
WILL BE SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TRACK. WHAT IS
FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN SE OF ANVIK TO
BUCKLAND TO EAGLE TODAY REDUCING THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS.
ALSO FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE NORTH OF BUCKLAND
AND HUSLIA TODAY AND TONIGHT SO ARE ISSUING WINTER STORM WARNINGS
FOR THOSE AREAS NOT ALREADY COVERED SUCH AS ZONES 207 208 AND 209.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ217.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204-AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ203-AKZ210-AKZ215-AKZ216.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ235.
&&

JB APR 15