Brisk Wind Advisory 113, NWS Fairbanks, AK

568 
FZAK52 PAFG 042211
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-051400-
211 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1003 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND
WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR SUNDAY. A
SECOND AND STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY 991 MB LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR ST MATTHEW
ISLAND AS A 975 MB LOW SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ200-051400-
NORTON SOUND-
211 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-051400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
211 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT BECOMING S. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-051400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
211 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2015

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-051400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
211 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...N WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CCC/RM APR 15

334 
FZAK52 PAFG 051222
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
422 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-060030-
422 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM GAMBELL TO UNALAKLEET WILL
MOVE TO SHISHMAREF TO DENALI BY NOON SUN AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 984
MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND AS
A 980 MB LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AS A 980 MB LOW BY
4PM MON.

$$

PKZ200-060030-
NORTON SOUND-
422 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SNOW. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-060030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
422 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON...NE WINDS 30 KT. SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY LESS THAN 1 NM.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-060030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
422 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-060030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
422 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

APR 15

673 
FZAK52 PAFG 052208
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-061315-
208 PM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR GAMBELL TO THE LOWER YK
DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY. A 980 MB LOW IN THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST TO BE NEAR NUNIVAK
ISLAND AS A 978 MB LOW BY 4PM MON.

$$

PKZ200-061315-
NORTON SOUND-
208 PM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-061315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
208 PM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.MON...NE WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS.
VSBY 1 NM OR LESS.
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-061315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
208 PM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-061315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
208 PM AKDT SUN APR 5 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.MON...NE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

CCC/RM APR 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
432 AM AKDT SAT APR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER NE ASIA AND THE NW
PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AND WESTERN
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE RIDGE MOVING TO
THE EASTERN GULF OF AK AND THE ALCAN BORDER MON WITH THE TROUGH
OVER THE BERING SEA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
EAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK TO TAKE A POSITION OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES NOW NEAR NORMAL WILL
RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY MON AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK...THEN DROP BELOW NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM ANAKATUVUK PASS TO DENALI WILL MOVE
TO ANAKTUVUK PASS TO DELTA JUNCTION BY 4PM SAT...TO ARCTIC VILLAGE
TO EAGLE BY 4AM SUN...THEN DISSIPATE OVER NE AK ON SUN. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH ACCUMULATION.

MODERATE TO STRONG CHINOOK DEVELOPING MON ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EASTERN
ALASKA RANGE.

SURFACE...
A 991 MB LOW 200 NM SW OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO 100 NM WEST OF
GAMBELL BY 4PM SAT AS A 996 MB LOW...AND TO 200 NM WEST OF GAMBELL
AS A 996 MB LOW BY 4AM SUN. AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING SE FROM
THIS LOW TO NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE TO GAMBELL TO SLEETMUTE BY
4PM SAT...TO THE BERING STRAIT TO MCGRATH BY 4AM SAT...AND
DISSIPATING ALONG A KOTZEBUE TO FAIRBANKS LINE BY SAT PM. EXPECT
1-2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS FRONT TODAY DECREASING TO FLURRIES
SUN. ALSO EXPECT EAST WINDS 25G35KT WITH THE FRONT ALONG THE WEST
COAST TODAY PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN IN ZONES 214 AND 215 TODAY WITH THE FRONT.

A 1047 MB HIGH CENTERED 400 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN THROUGH MON. THIS IS CAUSING EAST WINDS 10-20 KT ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST THAT WILL INCREASE 5 KT TODAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT MOVES NORTH AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT.

A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA SAT PM WILL MOVE TO ST
MATTHEW ISLAND AS A 978 MB LOW BY 4PM SUN...AND TO 50 NM NE OF ST
MATTHEW ISLAND AS A 973 MB LOW BY 4AM MON. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH IT TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
SUN-MON. ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL SEE NE WINDS 20-30KT ALONG WITH
BLOWING SNOW. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THIS IN ZONES 214
AND 215.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AT 500 MB. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4PM
SAT...THEN THE NAM AND ECMF DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA THAN THE GFS. PREFER THE DEEPER NAM SOLUTION FROM SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MON GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS AND STRONG SHORT WAVES
NOW IN THE NW PACIFIC THAT WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA SUN/MON. SURFACE LOW IN THE BERING IS 4-5 MB DEEPER
THAN MODELS SHOW AT 06Z SAT. AGAIN PREFER THE NAM ON THIS LOW
SINCE IT MAINTAINS THE LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE LONGER THAN THE GFS.
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR AREA OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MON.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

APR 15