Brisk Wind Advisory 102, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 PM AKDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND
EASTERN ALASKA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG
SHORT WAVES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY NORTH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IN THIS
SOUTH FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK NEAR
NORMAL ALONG THE WEST AND ARCTIC COASTS AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
INTERIOR.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM BETHEL TO KOYUK TO HOWARD PASS
WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA TO KOTZEBUE TO WAINWRIGHT BY 4AM
SAT...AND THEN DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WEAK SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL MOVE TO
TOK TO EAGLE BY 4AM SAT...TO BIG DELTA TO OLD CROW BY 4PM
SAT...AND TO FORT YUKON TO INUVIK BY 4AM SUN. EXPECT SCT/BKN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN EAST WINDS ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 0C NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE TO -17C
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. INTERIOR WILL COOL 1-2C SAT WHILE THE
ARCTIC COAST WILL WARM BY 4-8C. ALL AREAS WILL COOL 2-4C SUNDAY.

SURFACE..
A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL MOVE EAST
SUNDAY.

A WEAK SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH FROM
BETHEL TO KOYUK TO HOWARD PASS WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON DELTA TO
KOTZEBUE TO WAINWRIGHT BY 4AM SAT...AND THEN DISSIPATE IN PLACE.
WILL SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE
INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER NW AK TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NW
WINDS OF 15-25 KT.

A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA TONIGHT
WILL MOVE TO POINT HOPE TO NOME BY 4PM SAT...AND TO WAINWRIGHT TO
KOYUK TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4PM SUN...AND TO BARTER ISLAND TO
BETTLES TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4PM MON. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW WITH
LESS THAN 1 INCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FRONT ALONG THE COAST
DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES INLAND. NORTH WINDS 20KT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FRONT ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH SUN DECREASING SUN NIGHT.

A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SAT PM AND THEN DISSIPATE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN.
EXPECT ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT IN THE SE INTERIOR
SAT THROUGH SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 4PM
SUN. IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF SHORT WAVES
BUT SIMILAR IN MAINTAINING LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER NW CANADA AND
EASTERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ245.
&&

JB MAR 15