Storm Warning 224, NWS Anchorage, AK

600 
FZAK52 PAFC 302330
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-311200-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 MB LOW 50 NM NORTHWEST OF HOOPER BAY AND A 968 MB LOW 300 NM NORTHEAST OF
SHEMYA WILL BOTH WEAKEN AND BECOME A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY THU AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
FRI. A 985 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL TRACK TO NEAR KING
SALMON AT 980 MB WED NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND DISSIPATING
THU. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 60 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK AT
962 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-311200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-311200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-311200-
BRISTOL BAY-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-311200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-311200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-311200-
UNALASKA BAY-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-311200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-311200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-311200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-311200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-311200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-311200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-311200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-311200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-311200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-311200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-311200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
230 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT S 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N WIND 30 KT.
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
534 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM OF A BUILDING BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH ARE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. A
WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. STRONG ONSHORE SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR MAINLAND
IS ADVECTING WARMER...MOISTER AIR NORTHWARD. THIS IS VISIBLE ON
THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A LARGE MOISTURE PLUME OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO
THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND THEN EASTWARD OVER THE BROOKS RANGE IS
AIDING IN THE RAPID TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THE NET
RESULT OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
SEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE AS EVIDENT ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. THESE EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AT NEAR
OR OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL INTO THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
ATTRIBUTED IN PART TO THE FAVORABLE LOCATION OF THE LOW IN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG ZONAL JET AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THE STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
JUST APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GULF WHILE PREFRONTAL WINDS BEGIN TO
RAMP UP IN SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND CONTINUE AS THE EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE
STATE. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...A DEFORMATION BAND MOVING
NORTHWEST IS BRINGING PRIMARILY SNOW TO THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES
HOVER NEAR FREEZING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN ALASKA
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A
STRONGER SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN DEPICTED CONSISTENTLY BY THE GFS
FOR SEVERAL RUNS. THE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY
NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE MID 950S MB
RANGE. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
AND THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE BERING BASIN...WITH VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS.

WHILE MODELS HAVE HAD SOME DISCREPANCIES OVER THE LAST DAY WITH
POSITIONS AND INTENSITY, WHAT HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE
IS A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE LOW CENTER ITSELF. THIS BULLSEYE OF PRESSURE RISES WILL
TRACK GENERALLY ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND...THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE...AND
PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE ABRUPT
PRESSURE RISES WILL CAUSE A SUDDEN ACCELERATION OF WINDS FROM A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION...WHICH WILL BE MOST EXAGGERATED IN AREAS
OF COMPLEX TERRAIN. MOST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY WERE DONE
WITH MANUAL EDITS THAT REFERENCED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS...THOUGH NO MODELS WERE COMPLETELY DISCARDED TODAY DURING
FORECAST PREPARATION.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE WEATHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND REACHES THE
NORTH GULF COAST BY MIDDAY WED...IT WILL BRING DANGEROUS WINDS TO
SEVERAL PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AK. THESE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY...AS WELL AS KACHEMAK BAY. WIND WILL ALSO AFFECT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AROUND ANCHORAGE AND WILL WORK THEIR WAY DOWN THE LOWER
HILLSIDE TO EAST ANCHORAGE. ELSEWHERE SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AFFECT CHANNELED TERRAIN OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE LIMITED TO THOMPSON PASS...WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS SNOW...COMBINE WITH STRONG WIND AND PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED.

AFTER THIS FRONT PASSES CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA
BENEATH WEAK RIDGING BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE GULF THU
AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CURRENTLY THE DEFORMATION BAND STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FOR SNOW OR
MIXED RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN MOST COAST REMAINS THE MAIN
IMMEDIATE TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE
NEXT LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
SO EXPECTING TO SEE PRECIPITATION TYPE SWITCH ENTIRELY OVER TO
RAIN BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THAT WAY UNTIL FRONTAL
PASSAGE MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHEN COLDER AIR WILL START PUSHING BACK
IN FROM THE SOUTH.

WITH REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL LOW CROSSING INTO BRISTOL BAY LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN TRACKING NORTH ACROSS CAPE NEWENHAM AND ALONG THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE
STRONGER DEEPER LOW SOLUTION. THUS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND
STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

EAST WINDS WHICH HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...PEAKING
AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES IN THE ALEUTIAN AND
ALASKA RANGES AS THE DOWNSLOPE/GAP WIND PHASE OF THE STORM
DOMINATES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE COAST AROUND 1 OR 2 AM CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE FRONT APPROACHES. THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PUSH IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST BETWEEN 6 TO 7 AM
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. VERY STRONG
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES IN BRISTOL BAY WILL ADDITIONALLY
STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAKING GUSTS 60 TO 80 MPH
LIKELY IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES AND BRING GUSTS UP TO 100 MPH TO
THE MORE EXPOSED COASTAL HEADLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE BERING. THE LOW CURRENTLY
NORTH OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL FILL AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL COOL SHOWERY TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK BUT REMAIN LESS ORGANIZED.
THE NEXT LARGER LOW WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE
THE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BERING SENDS CONTINUOUS SHORTWAVES FROM
THE PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY WHICH ALLOWS
A SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE
GULF AND SURROUNDING COAST. A SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES INLAND
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE ROUNDS
THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SENDS THE NEXT ORGANIZED
SYSTEM TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WHICH PULLS ANOTHER
WARM AND MOIST PACIFIC AIR MASS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND AS
IT TRACKS TO THE EASTERN BERING.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 101 121 125 161. BLIZZARD WARNING 131.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 130 131. STORM WARNING 119 120 129 132
136 137 138 139 141 150 160 180. GALES 128 140 155 165.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...KH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1115 PM AKST TUE DEC 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E PORTAGE             60.78N 148.83W
12/29/2015  M76 MPH                             AK   ASOS

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 AM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KING SALMON             58.74N 156.54W
12/30/2015  M81 MPH                             AK   ASOS

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
221 AM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST IGIUGIG                 59.33N 155.88W
12/30/2015  M75 MPH                             AK   AWOS

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 AM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST KOLIGANEK               59.73N 157.28W
12/30/2015  M75 MPH                             AK   AWOS

&&

JPW