Storm Warning 184, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 11, 2015, 2:57 PM AKST (23:57 UTC)

Expired

Dec 12, 2015, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

105 
FZAK52 PAFC 112357
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-121245-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING DISSIPATES SAT MORNING. ANOTHER
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH SAT
MORNING...THEN GETS ABSORBED. A 959 MB LOW 325 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA LATE
FRI NIGHT MOVES TO 250 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 928 MB LATE SAT
NIGHT...THEN TO 125 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 936 MB SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-121245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-121245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S
35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN WITH SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-121245-
BRISTOL BAY-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-121245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT MOLLER
E...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-121245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT INCREASING TO SW 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 41 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 41 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-121245-
UNALASKA BAY-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-121245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 40 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-121245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 65 KT. GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEAS 27 FT BUILDING TO
40 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 44 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 42 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-121245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 32 FT BUILDING TO 47 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 47 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-121245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 75 KT. GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEAS 31 FT BUILDING TO
38 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 70 KT. SEAS 43 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 37 FT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-121245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING S 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 70 KT. GUSTS TO 85 KT. SEAS 52 FT. RAIN WITH
SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 65 KT. SEAS 48 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-121245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING S 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 34 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 80 KT DIMINISHING TO 70 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 90 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 29 FT BUILDING TO 42 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 47 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 65 KT. SEAS 42 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-121245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING N 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 38 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-121245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 40 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-121245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 24 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-121245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT.
.MON...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-121245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
257 PM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT
BECOMING E 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 45 KT INCREASING
TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 60
KT. SEAS 23 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Dec 11, 5:44 AM AKST, 9 hours 13 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
544 AM AKST FRI DEC 11 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE PATTERN IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME
SIGNS OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST...YET
ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS CLIPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. OVER
THE EASTERN BERING...A CLOSED LOW IS NOW CLEARLY SEEN ON SATELLITE
AND WITH SCATTEROMETER WINDS. THIS LOW IS WRAPPING COLD AIR BACK
INTO BRISTOL BAY AND CREATING PLENTY OF SHOWERS ON THE BERING SIDE
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IN THE GULF HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE AND IS ALSO PARKED OVER BRISTOL BAY. WHEN ADDING
THE COLD AIR AND THE MOISTURE TOGETHER...THE RESULT IS A FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL. KING SALMON
REPORTED 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AND IT IS STILL FALLING. THIS BAND
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES ITS SLOW
JOURNEY NORTH. WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME RADAR RETURNS
APPROACHING THE COAST AND THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST TIP OF THE KENAI
PENINSULA. WITH THE JET CONTINUING TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
MAINLAND...THIS LOW WILL HAVE LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT
IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DISCREPANCIES THAT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST. FIRST...HOW WELL DOES THE DEFORMATION BAND IN
BRISTOL BAY HOLD TOGETHER AND HOW FAR EAST DOES IT SLIDE.
SECOND...HOW MUCH DOWNSLOPING WILL THERE BE WITH THE LOW AS IT
SLIDES UP COOK INLET TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS WERE USED TO HANDLE BOTH OF THESE FINER SCALE
ITEMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT EVEN THE MORE BULLISH NAM IS NOW
STARTING TO BACK OFF A BIT ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER COOK
INLET. AS COLD AIR SLIDES IN FROM THE WEST AND HELPS TO STRENGTHEN THE
LOW...THIS RESULTS IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN MORE DOWNSLOPING...AT LEAST INITIALLY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW NOW APPEARS TO BE SAT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACTUALLY
MOVES OVERHEAD TO CUT OFF THE DOWNSLOPING AND WE SEE SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION OFF THE COOK INLET. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE
"LOCKED ON" TO A SOLUTION WITH THE STRONG BERING LOW OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ITS TRACK
OVERNIGHT. IT IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST SOLUTION BY SEVERAL
MILLIBARS...SO WE USED MORE OF AN AVERAGE WHEN IT CAME TO CENTRAL
PRESSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING OVER COOK INLET ON SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING...WITH SOME MIXING WITH RAIN POSSIBLE
NEAR HOMER AND CORDOVA IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW OVER THOSE AREAS TONIGHT AND SAT BEFORE DRYING
RETURNS SAT NIGHT. FOR INLAND AREAS...SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
CHUGACH WILL KEEP ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY DOWNSLOPED
UNTIL TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THOSE AREAS
THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO
AFFECT THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COPPER RIVER
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WITH TWO UPPER LEVEL CENTERS MOVING ALONG A
BROAD TROUGH. BRIEF RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A REINFORCING SURGE MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE ALASKA PENINSULA STAYS IN NORTH TO WESTERLY FLOW WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG WEATHER FRONT MOVES
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SNOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT AND CHANGES QUICKLY TO RAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH.
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL BERING THIS AFTERNOON. NO
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH PACIFIC ON
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS THE LOW CENTER
APPROACHES. WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING INCREASE
ON SATURDAY. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE
FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES TO
SEE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS STRENGTH AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE
MONITORED FOR UPDATES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE AREA
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE BEING A STRONG
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING NORTH PACIFIC LOW
ENTERING THE BERING SEA SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM SPREADS VERY
WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS NORTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS OVER THE WEEKEND...THE MORE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL WRAP UP BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO PUSH IN OVER THE AREA. AS THE LOW CENTER TRACKS
INTO THE CENTRAL BERING AND PROGRESSES NORTHWARD...WE EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO MIX
GUSTIER WINDS DOWN FROM ALOFT. THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM HAVE RAISED SOME CONCERN FOR COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING MINIMAL IMPACTS
TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF ICE PILING UP...
HOWEVER THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE
SYSTEM EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
BEGINNING TO RISE AS MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER...THE MODELS
ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
IS NOW SHOWING A MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION WHEN IT HAS BEEN SHOWING
THE FURTHEST WEST SOLUTION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS....AND THE EC DID
THE POLAR OPPOSITE WITH BECOMING THE WESTERN MOST SOLUTION WHEN IT
HAD BEEN THE MORE EASTERLY SOLUTION IN PRIOR RUNS. IT IS SAFE TO
SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF WORKING OUT THE
TRACK DETAILS...LEAVING FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER END OF
THE SPECTRUM.

FURTHER EAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE GULF
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD BY SUNDAY...AS A RIDGE TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PUSHING INTO THE BERING
SEA. SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH
BY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THEN MORE
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PICK BACK UP
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER INLAND DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...SHOWERY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AS MULTIPLE WAVES
COMING OFF THE STRONG BERING LOW WORK THEIR WAY OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 187 191.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 413.
	     STORM FORCE 173 174 175 176 177 178 411 412.
	     HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 185.
	     GALE 130 170 172 179 185 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...TP

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every storm warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.