Storm Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

988 
FZAK61 PAFC 150015
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-151445-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 59N 151W WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF ON SUN.

$$

PKZ351-151445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-151445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 PM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

255 
FZAK61 PAFC 151244
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160200-
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF THIS MORNING AND LINGERS
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-160200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-160200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 AM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT BUILDING TO 15 TO 20
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

660 
FZAK61 PAFC 160032
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-161445-
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF COAST
TONIGHT THEN PUSHES INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-161445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-161445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
332 PM AKST SUN FEB 15 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

970 
FZAK61 PAFC 161243
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170200-
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A STRONG FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL PUSH INLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-170200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-170200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
343 AM AKST MON FEB 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
412 PM AKST FRI FEB 13 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LOW WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ON THURSDAY HAS
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL NOW BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE UPPER JET SUPPORT
HEADS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LOW IS FORCED WESTWARD DUE TO
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS
TRACKING OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...WITH
PRECIP MOVING INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA. FOG WAS QUITE
EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE
MAT VALLEY... BUT MOST OF THAT HAS DISSIPATED AND ARRIVAL OF
CLOUDS WILL KEEP FOG FROM REFORMING TONIGHT.

OUT WEST A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LINGERING NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH FROM THIS LOW TO AROUND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IS PUSHING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING. SNOW CONTINUES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS...WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING
SNOW ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY MUCH WARMER AIR
IS PRODUCING AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE GULF AND
LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR...BUT NOTHING WHICH GREATLY AFFECTS THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED GREATLY WITH GULF LOW
TRACKING TO COOK INLET REGION SATURDAY EVENING. GENERALLY PREFER
THE DETAILS OF THE HI-RES MODELS AS THE LOW NEARS THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA. THIS IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONGER WINDS
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE WIND GETTING INTO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT VALLEY. ANY WIND AT ALL WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPS JUMP WELL ABOVE FREEZING. ALL OF THIS WILL BE
REFLECTED IN THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS. ACROSS THE WIDER FORECAST
AREA CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS
WITH A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WORKING INLAND. PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER WILL NOT BE AS DENSE AS THIS
MORNING DUE TO A DRIER AIR MASS AND INCREASING CLOUDS.

MAINLY SMALL CRAFT WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS LOW PUSHES CLOSER TO COOK INLET
SATURDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM
AND COOK INLET. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND
TURNAGAIN ARM SHOULD PEAK SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN TAPER DOWN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM ORGANIZES IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY GALE WINDS OR STRONGER ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AS IT MOVES NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A COUPLE OF ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING UP FROM THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC BEHIND THE LOW OVER THE GULF WILL PHASE JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL STILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.
THUS EXPECT PRECIP TO BE LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MARGINALLY COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
WITH THE TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA...
BUT EXPECT AREAS NORTH AND WEST TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.
ATTENTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND BRISTOL
BAY AREAS SOMETIME SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN
SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN BERING (NEAR THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS) WILL PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE HOMOGENEOUS. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO STEADY SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ON THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A SEASONABLY STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND NORTH
GULF COAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE IMPACTING COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE SHADOWING KEEPING MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
LARGELY DRY WITH ONLY SPORADIC SHOWERS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...AS WELL AS
MOST OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE LOW TRACK REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A TRACK OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GDPS FAVOR THE EASTERN
BERING CLOSER TO BRISTOL BAY. WITH THAT SAID...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG ACCELERATED GAP WINDS
THROUGH FAVORED TERRAIN SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM AND THROUGH THE
ILIAMNA GAP. DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL BE AIDED MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND...WITH WARMER MARITIME AIR
SWEEPING INTO MOST OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT EMANATING FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH CONTINUED WARM ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 131 139
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SEB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SEB
LONG TERM...JA