Storm Warning 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

399 
FZAK51 PAFC 141611 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

UPDATED ZONES 130 AND 139

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150415-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL TRACK TO 110 NM
SOUTH OF CHIGNIK WED NIGHT AT 960 MB AND THEN MOVE 125 NM
NORTHWEST OF CHIGNIK AT 965 MB THU NIGHT. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WED
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AND
THU.

$$

PKZ119-150415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-150415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-150415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-150415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-150415-
PORT VALDEZ-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-150415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-150415-
VALDEZ ARM-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-150415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-150415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-150415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-150415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-150415-
CHINIAK BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-150415-
MARMOT BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-150415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-150415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-150415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-150415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
711 AM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

351 
FZAK51 PAFC 150016
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151345-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 961 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK WILL TRACK TO BRISTOL
BAY THU AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI. 
A FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN TO WESTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN WED NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF WED NIGHT AND THU THEN DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-151345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE
THIS EVENING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151345-
PORT VALDEZ-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151345-
VALDEZ ARM-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151345-
CHINIAK BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151345-
MARMOT BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
316 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKST TUE JAN 13 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PHRASE RINSE AND REPEAT IS BEING UTTERED TO DESCRIBE THIS VERY
PERSISTENT PATTERN. THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW UNDERGO
SOME FLUCTUATIONS BUT THE MEAN POSITION OF THE LONG-WAVES REMAINS
THE SAME. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THIS MORNING...A
CLOSED HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TOWARD SIBERIA ALLOWING THE WARMER AIR MASS WHICH HAS
BEEN SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND TO PROGRESS TOWARD THE
INTERIOR. A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. UPSTREAM OF THESE RIDGES IS A MERRY-GO-ROUND
OF LOWS...WITH SYSTEMS DEVELOPING ALONG A ROBUST SUBTROPICAL JET
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...TRACKING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND ALASKA PENINSULA...THEN WEAKENING AS THEY TRACK BACK
WESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA. AS EACH STORM PASSES THROUGH THE
AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WARMS A LITTLE MORE. THIS HAS
DIMINISHED THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATED IT AS SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT
THE SURFACE.

AS FAR AS SPECIFIC SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS MORNING...ONE
LOW IS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS WESTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA. A
WEAKER LOW ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS DISSIPATING AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO A TROUGH AND HEAD NORTHWARD. AN ASSOCIATED
WARM OCCLUSION IS TRACKING INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...
WITH THE BULK OF PRECIP FALLING ALONG THE GULF COAST. INLAND
AREAS ARE MOSTLY DRY THANKS DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DEEP LOWS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE FOCUS
IS ON THE FARTHEST EAST ONE WHICH IS INTENSIFYING IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND IS POISED TO TRACK UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE
OTHER LOW IS ALSO BEGINNING TO CURVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM LOW WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW WITH LESS OVERALL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.
MINOR DIFFERENCES DO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW POSITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS..BUT THESE DIFFERENCES DON NOT HAVE A HUGE
IMPACT ON THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION HAS
BEEN DISCARDED AS AN OUTLIER WITH NOTABLY FASTER PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND
AND A FARTHER NORTH CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS GROUPED CLOSER TOGETHER
WITH NO REAL PREFERENCE FOR ANY INDIVIDUAL MODEL. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH MARGINALLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT WARM FRONT HAS NOW SHIFTED
NORTH OF ANCHORAGE INTO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND EXTENDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE ANCHORAGE AREA AND MUCH OF THE
KENAI PENINSULA AS CROSS BARRIER FLOW IS NOW MUCH TOO STRONG (30+
KNOTS) TO SUPPORT ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 42N 147W THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER
AIR TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND ALSO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. FREEZING RAIN IS A BIT LESS LIKELY WITH THIS EVENT THAN
WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO SYSTEMS AS THE AIR MASS OVER THE ALASKA
MAINLAND HAS STEADILY MODIFIED WITH THE PREVIOUS SURGES OF WARM
AIR. AT THIS TIME...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS
WILL BE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (5K TO 7K FT)...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW SOME SPILL OVER ACROSS THE KENAI AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SO AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...THE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IS NOT AS GREAT.
THE ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK DUE TO STEADY WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAX WILL LIFT INTO
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING THEN CONTINUE NORTH
UP OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE
GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE THINK THE HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING SEEM QUITE REASONABLE.
WITH THE BULK OF THIS PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER 152 WHERE VALLEY
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S...A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OF FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ALSO THINK A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

FOR ZONE 155...THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHTER BUT ALSO THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
RAIN. WITH THE INITIAL UPPER TROUGH TONIGHT MOST ALL WILL BE
FOCUSED TO THE EAST WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER KALSKAG
TAPERING TO TRACE TO COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OVER BETHEL. WITH A
SECONDARY FEATURE LIFTING NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...STARTING
AROUND 4 TO 6 AM IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ZONE AND
CONTINUING NORTH THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPREAD MORE BROADLY OVER ZONE 155 AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE
IN 152 WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE. IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA...ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND KEEPING RAIN THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
UNSEASONABLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 170W TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ONLY MAKES TO TO
AROUND 50N BEFORE THE DEEPENING LOW SWINGING INTO THE WESTERN GULF
STARTS STEALING ITS ENERGY. THE RESULTS WILL BE ONLY A SMALL AREA
OF GALES BRIEFLY REACHING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AS IT
WEAKENS AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAILING MOST ELSEWHERE. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AREAS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA FURTHER
EAST AND BRISTOL WHERE THE WESTERN GULF LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
GALES AS IT ROTATES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
VARIOUS LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BERING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS KEEPING THE LONGWAVE PATTERN SIMILAR WITH TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING AND RIDGING SET UP OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA KEEPING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES 152 AND 155.
MARINE...STORMS 130 131.
GALES 119 120 132 136 137 138 150 155 160 165 172 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK