Storm Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

560 
FZAK62 PAFC 251234
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260230-
334 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR 50N 156W MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THU
MORNING. A 971 MB LOW NEAR 48N 168E MOVES TO 52N 176W AT 967 MB
THU MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 52N 165W AT 973 MB FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-260230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
334 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-260230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-260230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
334 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-260230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
334 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING E 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
556 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN LOW NEAR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF ITS FRONT STILL
REMAIN STRETCHED DOWN THE ALASKA RANGE AND OVER THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE BEING PREVENTED FROM MOVING DUE TO THE RIDGING OVER THE
GULF THAT EXTENDS NORTH TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THIS
DOMINANT HIGH IS ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUOUS WARM STREAM OF MOISTURE
TO BE PULLED UP FROM THE SOUTH. MUCH OF THE ORIGINAL PRECIPITATION
WAS SNOW BUT HAS SINCE TRANSITIONED OVER TO RAIN IN MANY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT EARLY ON BUT THINGS
DIVERGE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE GFS HAS THE FASTEST SOLUTION FOR THIS LOW WITH THE
NAM CLOSE BEHIND. THE EC IS SLOWER STILL WITH THE GEM WAY BACK.
THE NAM HAS SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE AND SEEMS
TO ALSO BE HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL JET BETTER WHICH WOULD GIVE
CREDENCE TO THE FASTER SOLUTION. THIS GIVES HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
THE NAM SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN IMPRESSIVE FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING...AND ALSO
MUCH WARMER AIR. THIS MORNING...THE FRONT HAS BEEN BRINGING A WIDE
MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL FROM HEAVY SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN. COOL NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF MATANUSKA VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. WARMER AIR ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN RAIN FALLING ONTO THE
MUCH COOLER GROUND...RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN THAT BEGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND NOON WHEN
EVEN IN CHICKALOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.
IN CONTRAST...LOCAL DOWNSLOPING OVER ANCHORAGE OVERNIGHT HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO STAY WARM ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE THAT
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS OCCURRED IN ISOLATED AREAS.

THE GREATEST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY AS WARM AIR
CONTINUES TO FUNNEL NORTHWARD TODAY. CURRENTLY IT IS MOST LIKELY
THAT SNOW WILL TURN INTO RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND
RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN NEAR WILLOW IN THE MORNING BEFORE A
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A POTENT NORTH PACIFIC WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ALONG THE FRONT.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS MORE OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ELSEWHERE...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE BERING
THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW MOVING TOWARDS
THE BERING STRAIT. ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE NEXT LOW
APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STORM FORCE
WINDS TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS IT SKIRTS THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL START AS SNOW BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS WARM
AIR SURGES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY WED EVENING A LOW MOVING INTO THE AKPEN WILL BE DIRECTING A
SURGE OF WARM AIR INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST...WHILE THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF IN-FA WILL BE NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
ON ITS EASTWARD TRANSIT. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE INITIAL LOW INTO SW AK WHERE IT DECAYS ON THU...AND
THE FORMER IN-FA TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON FRI. AT THIS POINT
MODEL AGREEMENT DIVERGES WITH IN-FA MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING....AND THE BERING THEN BECOMING POPULATED BY SURFACE WAVES
BENEATH AN AMORPHOUS UPPER LOW. WPC ONCE AGAIN APPLIES ITS
ENSEMBLE APPROACH AND BRINGS IN-FA TO THE WEST COAST OF AK WHERE
IT DISSIPATES LATE ON SAT...AND A SECOND LOW TRANSITS THE ENTIRE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN SAT THROUGH MON BEFORE REACHING BRISTOL BAY ON TUE.
THE FORECAST UTILIZES THIS SOLUTION WITH DECREASING CONFIDENCE
OVER TIME AS THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BECOMES DOMINANT.

IN THE EAST...WARM ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...CROSSING THE KENAI AND REACHING AT
LEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE ALASKA RANGE NORTH OF TALKEETNA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION ALL SNOW IN THAT AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

IN THE WEST...RAIN WITH GALES AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
FORMERLY KNOWN AS IN-FA AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN BERING.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW THU AND FRI. AS THE SECOND LOW BEGINS ITS TRANSIT...WIND AND
RAIN WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE CHAIN SAT THROUGH TUE...WITH RAIN
MIXING WITH SNOW ON THE WESTERN FLANK AS IT CROSSES THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WSW HEAVY SNOW 145. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 111. COASTAL
FLOOD/HIGH SURF ADVISORY 155 AND 161.

MARINE...STORMS 175 176 177 178
         GALES 119 121 125 131 132 139 150 155 173 174 180
         181 351 352 411 413 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1022 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 AM     SNOW             CANTWELL                63.37N 148.92W
11/24/2015  M15.0 INCH                          AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SNOW ONGOING. OVERNIGHT TOTAL SNOW. ESTIMATED 30 INCHES
            ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY SOUTH OF CANTWELL.

1010 AM     SNOW             36 NNE CHASE            62.93N 149.66W
11/24/2015  M13.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWFALL FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 4
            INCHES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. CURRENTLY LIGHT ICE PELLETS
            FALLING. TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IS 56 INCHES.

1010 AM     SNOW             7 NNW TRAPPER CREEK     62.33N 150.54W
11/24/2015  M11.0 INCH                          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. 6 INCHES DURING THE DAY
            MONDAY...5 INCHES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT. TOTAL SNOW DEPTH
            IS 25 INCHES. LIGHT SNOW ONGOING. TEMPERATURE IS 23
            DEGREES.

1010 AM     SNOW             WILLOW                  61.74N 150.06W
11/24/2015  E7.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT. LIGHT DRIZZLE
            ONGOING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE IS 28 DEGREES.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1047 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 AM     SNOW             19 ESE PUNTILLA         61.96N 152.23W
11/24/2015  M7.5 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH IS 25 INCHES.

1046 AM     SNOW             3 S TALKEETNA           62.30N 150.10W
11/24/2015  M8.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL. SNOW DEPTH IS 28 INCHES. VERY
            LIGHT SNOW ONGOING.

&&

JPW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
236 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

AKZ111-252200-
MATANUSKA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON
236 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...AVALANCHE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1PM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF HATCHER PASS...

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE HATCHER PASS
AVALANCHE CENTER.

THE HATCHER PASS AVALANCHE CENTER HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE
WARNING.

* TIMING…IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM AKST TODAY TO 1:00 PM AKST WEDNESDAY

* AFFECTED AREA…FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF HATCHER PASS IN THE
  TALKEETNA MOUNTAIN RANGE.

* AVALANCHE DANGER…THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA WILL
  RISE TO HIGH TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.

* REASON…RECENT HEAVY SNOW COMBINED WITH WIND WILL HAS CREATED
  WIDESPREAD AREAS OF UNSTABLE SNOW. BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND
  NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY ON SLOPES STEEPER THAN ABOUT 30
  DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY / PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDERNEATH
SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES. AVALANCHES MAY RUN LONG
DISTANCES. CHOOSE CONSERVATIVE TERRAIN.

CONSULT WWW.HATCHERPASSAVALANCHECENTER.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

SIMILAR AVALANCHE DANGER MAY EXIST AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE COVERAGE AREA
OF ANY AVALANCHE CENTER. CHECK WWW.ALASKASNOW.ORG AND
WWW.AVALANCHE.ORG FOR YOUR CLOSEST AVALANCHE CENTER.