Storm Warning 114, NWS Anchorage, AK

750 
FZAK62 PAFC 230025
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
325 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-231515-
325 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 966 MB LOW NEAR 54N 174E WILL TRACK TO 60N 178W AT 969MB MON
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 66N 169W AT 985 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-231515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
325 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 50 KT BECOMING NW 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-231515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
325 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING W 35 TO 45 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 TO 32 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-231515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
325 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 TO 35 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 45 TO 60 KT DIMINISHING TO W 35 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 TO 35 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ414-231515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
325 PM AKST SUN NOV 22 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

641 
FZAK62 PAFC 231240
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-240230-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 MB LOW NEAR 57N 179E WILL TRACK TO 63N 172W AT 977 MB
TONIGHT...THEN TO 68N 170W AT 993 MB TUE NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TONIGHT WILL TRACK TO 47N 166E AT 970 MB
TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 TO 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF
58N.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 TO 60 KT BECOMING W 35 TO 50 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 22 TO 35 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ414-240230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
340 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 TO 31 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

016 
FZAK62 PAFC 240011
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-241430-
311 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A LARGE 970 MB LOW NEAR 59N 177W WILL MOVE TO 66N 167W AT 988 MB
TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI. A 989 MB LOW
NEAR 52N 157W LATE TUE NIGHT WILL MOVE TO 54N 157W AT 990 MB WED
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 967 MB LOW NEAR 48N 168E LATE TUE NIGHT MOVES
TO 51N 177E AT 961 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
311 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO W 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING W 25 TO 40 KT DURING THE
EVENING. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
311 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO W 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-241430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
311 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 30 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 TO 30 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

003 
FZAK62 PAFC 241241
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-250215-
341 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 978 MB LOW NEAR 62N 172W WILL WEAKEN TO 992 MB AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
THE CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT. A 969 MB LOW NEAR 48N 168E TONIGHT WILL
TRACK TO 52N 176W AT 965 MB WED NIGHT. A 994 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW
WILL MOVE TO 56N 154W AT 995 MB WED.

$$

PKZ411-250215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
341 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-250215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-250215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-250215-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
341 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ALASKA
FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
THIS MORNING PRODUCING AREAS OF SNOW FROM ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU
TO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION RIGHT BEHIND
THIS WAVE IS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA WATERS. SIMILARLY STRONG WINDS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED IN WHITTIER AND WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. A WEAKER
AND BROADER SHORT-WAVE IS HEADED INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TODAY. SNOWFALL WITH THIS IS MUCH LIGHTER AND SPARSER THAN WHAT
IS FALLING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. CONTINUING UPSTREAM ANOTHER COUPLE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE CROSSING THE CENTRAL BERING AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AS WITH THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA TROUGH THESE ARE
OF LOW AMPLITUDE AND PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
NEXT MAJOR STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA...WHERE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK EXITING ASIA IS
LEADING TO RAPID DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS
WE ARE JUST BEGINNING TO SEE RISING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO TRANSPORT OF MUCH
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN ALASKA MAINLAND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MINOR DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH TRACK OF A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE
LOWS...ONE MOVING ONSHORE OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND
ANOTHER CROSSING THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL AFFECT THE WINDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER...BUT WILL
HAVE LITTLE AFFECT ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LARGER REGION. WILL
GENERALLY USE AN AVERAGE POSITION OF ALL THE MODELS. AS FAR AS THE
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE BERING SEA THERE HAS BEEN A
DEFINITE MODEL TREND TOWARD A DEEPER LOW AND STRONGER WINDS...SO
WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER SO WILL
ALSO REFLECT THAT CHANGE IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST
THE STRONG POST FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF. SNOW WILL PERSIST THE
LONGEST OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN MAINLY EAST OF THE RICHARDSON
HIGHWAY AND OVER THE ADJACENT MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WOULD CONFINE
ITS PRECIPITATION TO THE GULF AND MORE SOUTHERN COAST AREAS...THEY
DO STILL SWING A PHASED TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
FURTHER NORTH. WHILE THE NORTHERN TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG IT
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING AND INCH OR TWO OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ANCHORAGE AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A SUBSTANTIALLY LARGER AND WARMER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING THE PREVAILING FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
WILL INITIALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY WITH THE SOUTHERLY UP VALLEY FLOW FAVORABLE TO
PRODUCE A GOOD BIT OF SNOW IN THAT AREA WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COLD. FURTHER EAST...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND DOWN SLOPE DRYING WILL COMPETE WITH THE OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION...KEEPING PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND SPOTTY FROM THE
MATANUSKA VALLEY TO ANCHORAGE METRO AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A QUICK-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND BRINGS A SHOT OF SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE UP TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM AS SNOW ENDS...NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25 MPH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING POSSIBLE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ZONE NORTH AND WEST OF BETHEL.
ANY POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...LASTING
GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 3 TO 6 HOURS...BEFORE A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND CAUSES SNOW TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
SURF CONDITIONS FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES FROM KUSKOKWIM BAY NORTH
ALONG THE COAST...BEGINNING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AROUND MIDDAY
MONDAY. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS REACHING 2.5 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE MAX ASTRONOMICAL TIDE FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES NORTH OF CAPE NEWENHAM. GIVEN NO REPORTED IMPACTS FROM
PREVIOUS HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ISSUED IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS FOR
THIS REGION...WE WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING ANYTHING FOR THIS PACKAGE
BUT WILL REVISIT AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
TONIGHT. A HIGH-END GALE TO STORM-FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATER TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN IN FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS AS
IT MOVES OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH-END STORM FORCE TO HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS LOW WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY YET STILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG AS IT
MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA BY MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AT THE START OF DAY 3...THE DOMINATE FEATURE WILL BE THE LARGE LOW
IN THE BERING SEA...LOCATED JUST WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND
TUESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT BY THIS TIME WILL BE SWEEPING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING AS MOSTLY RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT STORM FORCE MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING TO STRONG GALE FORCE BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE BERING SEA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES NORTHWARD TO NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BY THIS TIME THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE
WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...WHICH
WILL PREVENT THE FRONT FROM PUSHING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN ABOUT
145W.

AT THIS POINT...THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND THE GULF COAST. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS IN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA WILL GENERALLY KEEP
THE ANCHORAGE AREA DOWN-SLOPED...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS THROUGH DAY 3 WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL AGAIN BE AN ISSUE
WITH THE FLOW UP COOK INLET FAVORABLE FOR A CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY LATE TUESDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY ONWARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION FOR EX-TYPHOON IN-FA WITH A 965 TO 975 MB
LOW MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS HAVE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED HOWEVER ON
THE HANDLING OF THE LOW THAT IS ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF OAHU
THIS AFTERNOON. AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THIS FEATURE...IN WHATEVER
FORM IT WILL TAKE...SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK REGION IN
THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME...BUT EVEN THIS IS NOT
CERTAIN AS THE MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT WITH SURFACE FEATURES AS
WELL AS WHAT TO DO WITH THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. BOTH
THE EC AND THE GFS HINT THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF THIS ENERGY WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE REMAINS IN-FA ON DAY 6-7. WITH THIS BEING
SAID...AGAIN WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED HEAVILY IN THE DAY 4-7 TIME
FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THESE TWO
FEATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155.
 SNOW ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE WARNING 178.
 STORM WARNING 175 176 177 181 185.
 GALE WARNING 119 120 129 130 131 150 155 165 170 171 172 173 174
179 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...RF